While investors remain fearful that President Donald Trump’s tariff policy will tip the U.S. economy into a recession, UBS still sees an avenue for the stock market to rise. David Lefkowitz, the bank’s head of U.S. equities, told clients that the bank anticipates Trump’s levies on foreign countries to come down sometime this year. If that happens, he said there’s reason to believe the market can rebound. “While uncertainty is high, we expect the very high proposed tariffs to eventually fall over the course of the year, which should help lift stocks by year-end,” Lefkowitz said in a Tuesday note. Lefkowitz’s take offers a rare sign of hope for a stock market that’s torpedoed in recent days. Even with Wednesday morning’s bounce , the S & P 500 has plunged more than 11% over the last five sessions as traders worry that the taxes will hamstring U.S. consumers and drive up inflation. The S & P 500 is now down around 15% in 2025. To be sure, Lefkowitz’s base case implies the broad index will end the year marginally in the red, as his current target of 5,800 for implies sliding 1.4% in 2025. He’s one of several Wall Street market strategists that have slashed their targets for the benchmark over recent days amid the tariff-induced market meltdown. “President Trump surprised us and the markets by announcing much more aggressive tariffs than expected. While we believe these tariff rates will eventually be negotiated lower, we don’t expect a quick reversal in tariff policy,” Lefkowitz said in a note announcing his whittled-down target. “As a result, our economics team has downgraded their growth expectations to reflect anemic GDP growth this year.” Trump attempted to soothe worried Americans, writing in a social media post to “BE COOL!” and that the U.S. will “be bigger and better than ever before.” In a follow-up post, he wrote that “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!” Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange! Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
