WASHINGTON (WO) — U.S. crude oil production is expected to dip slightly in 2026, ending a four-year streak of steady growth, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The agency forecasts crude production will average 13.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d) next year — about 100,000 bbl/d less than in 2025. Output rose by 300,000 bbl/d in 2024 and 400,000 bbl/d in 2025, driven largely by continued gains in the Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico.
The EIA expects modest increases from Alaska, the Federal Gulf of Mexico, and the Permian basin to be offset by declines in other producing regions.
West Texas Intermediate crude prices are projected to average $65 per barrel in 2025 and fall further to $51 in 2026, compared with an average of $77 per barrel in 2024, according to the agency.
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