Robinhood tanks on revenue miss and crypto jitters. Analysts say buy the dip
Wall Street analysts largely looked past Robinhood ‘s fourth-quarter revenue miss, focusing instead on the fintech trading platform’s future growth profile. Robinhood delivered fourth-quarter revenue of $1.28 billion, below consensus estimates calling for $1.35 billion, according to FactSet. Earnings of 66 cents per share exceeded expectations of 63 cents. Shares of Robinhood tumbled 9% early Wednesday. The stock was already 24% lower on the year through Tuesday. Analysts pointed to softening net new assets (NNAs) as a sore spot in the latest set of Robinhood financials. But Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish wrote that the slowdown already looked better in February. “The most significant data point in our view is NNAs, which decelerated in December and picked up modestly in January. February looks off to a stronger start, particularly with NNAs, though commentary on trading volumes was ambiguous regarding [market] share,” he wrote. Wall Street analysts as a whole generally stood by their bullish stances on Robinhood, instead highlighting the company’s potential to expand future revenue. “Management struck a constructive tone on the 2026 outlook, and expect revenue growth to continue to exceed expense growth, given the majority of expenses are in investment,” wrote Goldman Sachs analyst James Yaro. At Deutsche Bank, analyst Brian Bedell wrote that, “While January trading metrics for core asset classes were tracking below our prior estimates on a run rate basis, early February trends point to a significant reacceleration, and most importantly, we see management’s ambitious 2026 product roadmap as a further accelerant for sequential revenue growth throughout this year,” Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani sees another tailwind for Robinhood in its prediction markets business, which could “spring a big 2026 surprise” and is already on track to becoming a billion-dollar annual business. He also predicts a recovery in the current crypto market starting in the second quarter of the year. “Ride out the crypto jitters — it’s temporary,” Chhugani wrote. “We would ride out the crypto volatility and see no point in turning negative on the stock closer to the bottom.” Bottom line, most analysts maintained their long-term bullish stance on Robinhood, although JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley were exceptions in sticking by their neutral ratings. Several analysts also lowered their price targets. Here’s how Wall Street’s biggest shops reacted. JPMorgan: neutral rating, $113 price target JPMorgan’s price target, down from $130, implies about 32% upside from Robinhood’s Tuesday close of $85.60. “We thought the results were weaker than anticipated, with some key KPIs [decelerating], including deposits, gold subscribers, and account growth. Reported net deposits of $15.9bn (19% annualized growth) were light vs. expectations (JPM [estimate] $18.5bn, consensus $19.4bn). We think the 4Q25 results were emblematic of Robinhood’s overall growth still being impressive but decelerating from previous results over the last 12-18 months.” Barclays: overweight, $124 Barclays’ price target, lowered from $159, corresponds to upside of 45%. “Revenues missed (take rates, sec lending, etc.), more than offsetting slightly lower opex. The company remains focused on its ambitious LT goals with more to come in F26 but we expect the recent slowdown in [net new assets] growth, among a few other KPIs, to weigh on shares in tomorrow’s tape.” Goldman Sachs: buy, $130 Goldman Sachs’ target, down from $152, calls for 52% upside going forward. “Based on the results, and the updated outlook, we reduce 2026E/27E adjusted EPS by 7%/3%, and roll out 2028E EPS. We decrease our Q5-Q8 P/E target multiple (rolled forward one quarter) by 8.5x to 45.5x, reflecting lower market multiples, resulting in our 12-month price target decreasing by 14% to $130.” Deutsche Bank: buy, $130 The bank cut its price target from $155. “Key takeaway: Mixed 4Q, but revenue should rebound thru 2026. We view HOOD’s 4Q25 results as being mixed overall, with calculated “core” EPS of $0.57 being below our $0.61 estimate and Consensus of $0.63 (after adjusting for a 9-cent tailwind from lower-than-expected tax rate of 8.5% vs. our 21.0% estimate), and adjusted EBITDA of $761mn was below our $815mn (Consensus of $833mn).” Morgan Stanley: equal-weight, $147 Morgan Stanley’s forecast is 72% above Robinhood’s Tuesday close. “HOOD enters ’26 with strong product velocity that can support growth. Social and Cortex roll out set to deepen engagement, UK ISA expands int’l appeal, and prediction markets + Rothera JV improve UX & economics. But softening NNA, crypto, prediction mkts, could weigh NT.” Bernstein: outperform, $160 Bernstein’s forecast implies upside of 87%. “HOOD declared Q4 numbers. Q4 revenue missed estimates by 4%, with a 6% beat on EPS at $0.67. Full year EPS at $2.12 beat estimates by 2%. The top line weakness driven by crypto weakness was expected and stock is already down 24% YTD (overnight down another 9%). Prediction markets clocked new records, now at $435mn ARR. Overall business metrics remained solid — Funded accounts, Gold users, Gold cards all reaching new highs.”
