Stock market update: Absolutely disappointing end to a day when all the effort that was seen in the last three days was brought to a nought, leading the trends to capsize without any hesitation. This has now proved that we need to work harder as domestic cues are not able to sustain the momentum.
Three stocks to trade as recommended by Raja Venkatraman of NeoTrader for today:
Best stocks to buy today (All Buy trades are rates of Equity & Sell rates are based on F&O)
Marico Ltd: Buy above ₹783 | Stop ₹760 | Target ₹833 (multiday)
Gujarat Ambuja Exports Ltd: Buy above ₹142 | Stop ₹135 | Target ₹155 (multiday)
Tech Mahindra Ltd: Sell below ₹1,470 | Stop ₹1,515 | Target ₹1,390 (multiday)
Stock market performance | 19 February
The NSE Nifty retreated from its record high of 26,026 to close at 25,790, down 91 points, as profit booking set in after a three-day rally that had lifted the index by 1.4%. The broader market bore the brunt of the correction, with the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices falling 1.6% and 1.27%, respectively. Thirteen of the 16 major sectoral indices ended in the red, with banking, IT, FMCG, and oil and gas stocks leading the decline. The Nifty Bank dropped nearly 1%, weighed down by losses in Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, and IndusInd Bank.
Rising crude oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran, added to investor caution. Brent crude hovered at $70.31 per barrel after a sharp 4.35% surge in the previous session. Analysts pointed to the 25,900-26,000 zone as a key resistance level for the Nifty, suggesting that a sustained breakout above this range could signal renewed bullish momentum. Meanwhile, India VIX spiked 8.1% to 13.21, reflecting heightened near-term volatility, especially with the F&O expiry adding to market jitters. Despite the pullback, the broader sentiment remains constructive, with experts advising selective stock picking and disciplined trading amid ongoing consolidation.
Outlook for trading
Despite the best intentions, the market could not conjure up enough strength to continue its upward march seen on Wednesday. We had mentioned 25,900-26,000 as an important zone that needs to be broken. The cloud support once again intervened, leading to a sell-off in the last few days, which continues unabated. However, the lack of clarity is demanding that we need more encouraging tailwinds to hold back 26,000. The steady attempt to buy on every dip has once again given people a reason to maintain the bullish side of the markets for now. With no clarity on the future course of action, we should be looking at participating with a neutral bias.
We saw a determined push by the bulls in the last session that could not carry the Nifty decisively beyond the 26,100 levels. Despite a strong Q3 performance this time around, the trends have not been able to demonstrate a convincing move above this level.
With so much volatility on display, the Nifty has truly kept the trend-followers guessing about the next move. As seen on the charts, the reaction we are noticing now has retraced to an important support level around 25400-25500, which is 50% of the rise from the recent February low to the post-trade-deal announcement high. The recent price action is seen holding the Fibonacci supports. As a repeated test of resistance will now become a point of contention, it was not surprising to see some selling emerge from those levels. Indeed, the selloff seen towards the close of the session seemed quite determined with sustained follow-through price action. This becomes quite confounding for trend-followers, as they normally look for sentiment to continue running if it has been set off. But here you have the market displaying rapid mood shifts, and it also seems like operators are taking full advantage of this.
The Nifty is struggling to hold the 25,400-25,500 zone and will now need to hold back any selling pressure that can emerge. The Open Interest data clearly indicates the market is now divided, as lower levels are not being bought into. The data reveals that the Max Pain point has now moved to 25,600, quite close to the support region. We need to see how this level holds on Friday to decide the way forward.
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Three stocks to trade, recommended by NeoTrader’s Raja Venkatraman:
MARICO (Cmp ₹780.15)
Why it’s recommended: Marico Ltd is a leading Indian multinational consumer goods (FMCG) company headquartered in Mumbai, specializing in beauty and wellness. On the Daily charts, we found a move that heads above the value resistance region around 780. As trends beyond the cloud region are sustaining, one can expect the upward drive to continue. As a push beyond the cloud region has emerged, one can consider buying into a revival of the FMCG sector.
Key metrics:
P/E: 52.15,
52-week high: ₹798,
Volume: 1.69M
Technical analysis: Support at ₹745 | Resistance at ₹850.
Risk factors: Sudden policy changes, tax hikes, potential advertising bans, and the entry of new global players.
Buy: Above ₹783.
Stop loss: ₹760.
Target price: ₹833. (Two months)
GAEL (Cmp ₹141.63)
Why it’s recommended: Gujarat Ambuja Exports Ltd (GAEL), established in 1991, is a major Indian agro-processing company. It specializes in manufacturing corn starch derivatives, soya products, edible oils, cotton yarn, and cattle feed for food, pharmaceutical, and animal nutrition industries. The revival from the cloud support post-Q3 numbers has been backed by volume, and the strong thrust seen in the last two sessions clearly indicates bullish intent. With trends showing a steady revival above the recent range, we can look for prices to head higher.
Key metrics:
P/E: 32.12,
52-week high: ₹143.80,
Volume: 1.79M.
Technical analysis: Support at ₹128 | Resistance at ₹160.
Risk factors: Competition and pricing pressure, persistency and surrender risk and variations in actual death or health claims.
Buy: Above ₹142
Stop loss: ₹135
Target price: ₹155 (2 Months)
TECHM (Cmp ₹1,473.80)
Why it’s recommended: Tech Mahindra (TechM) is a leading global provider of digital transformation, consulting, and business re-engineering services, focusing on AI, digital experiences, and industry-specific solutions. The sharp upside momentum seen on Wednesday showed resolve to move higher after crossing important resistance zones around 169. The disappointing Q3 numbers seem to be getting prices in for some steady upward trends to show an upmove in the next few days. The lower low breaching an important cloud support region now is inducing some bearishness in the last few sessions. With the IT sector showing continued weakness, go short.
Key metrics:
P/E Ratio: 35.98
52-week low: ₹1209.40
Volume: 7.74M
Technical analysis: Support at ₹1,360 | Resistance at ₹1,560.
Risk factors: Challenging demand environment in the IT sector, high concentration in the telecom vertical, and premium valuation pressures.
Buy: Above ₹1470.
Stop loss: ₹1,515.
Target price: ₹1,390. (2 Months)
Raja Venkatraman is co-founder, NeoTrader. His Sebi-registered research analyst registration no. is INH000016223.
Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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