Nvidia earnings are out after market close. Here's what Wall Street expects to see
Nvidia earnings are coming out during a precarious time for the market, as investors grapple with the fall of a few great tech giants. Wall Street has high expectations — and it’s confident the chipmaker can deliver. Nvidia is set to report fiscal fourth-quarter results after Wednesday’s close. The company is, so far this year, the winner among the “Magnificent Seven”. Shares of the artificial intelligence chipmaker are up 5.6% year to date. Stocks such as Microsoft and Google parent Alphabet are down about 18% and 0.7%, respectively, meanwhile. Analysts remain bullish on Nvidia given strong AI capital expenditures expected this year, ongoing demand for AI compute and Nvidia’s lower P/E ratio relative to hyperscaler peers. Of the 66 analysts on the Street covering Nvidia, 23 maintain a strong buy rating, 38 give it a buy and four have a hold rating, per LSEG. JPMorgan sees hefty upside for Nvidia with its year-end price target of $250 suggesting 29.6% upside from Tuesday’s close. Analyst Harlan Sur also has an overweight rating on shares. NVDA 1Y mountain Nvidia stock performance over the past year. Sur is one of several who highlighted Nvidia’s strong track record during its quarterly prints, which has boosted confidence in the company’s upcoming report. “We are clearly in an environment of elevated expectations heading into NVDA’s F4Q26 (Jan-Qtr) print, considering the stock has basically moved sideways since the F3Q26 print despite a slew of positive/favorable developments,” Sur wrote. “That said, we see little to suggest that NVDA will not (once again) deliver a beat-and-raise on results/guidance that should, at a minimum, drive another round of upward estimate revisions (in a similar vein to what has unfolded in recent quarters).” JPMorgan’s industry checks also suggest a strong ramp in Blackwell Ultra rack volumes for the most recent quarter, compared to the prior quarter. Morgan Stanley and TD Cowen are among analysts who are confident on accelerating Vera Rubin demand, with TD Cowen also expecting potential upside to Nvidia management’s previous guidance of $500 billion in Blackwell and Vera Rubin orders through the end of 2026. Rising memory costs should not be an issue for Nvidia given the soaring AI compute demand, Morgan Stanley believes. Consensus estimates point to Nvidia to report adjusted earnings of $1.53 per share on $66.2 billion, per LSEG. Take a look at what the biggest names on Wall Street are saying: Morgan Stanley: Overweight rating, $250 price target “We would be buyers of NVIDIA stock into this report,” analyst Joseph Moore wrote in a Monday note. “We expect NVIDIA to trade up on good results, with a clear acceleration in near term drivers, an impactful and accelerating Vera Rubin ramp, and long term confidence … Beyond the quarter, there is a strong catalyst path. CEO Jensen Huang will present a keynote at our TMT conference next week, followed by the GTC developer event in mid March that will likely give more color on the Vera Rubin ramp, as well as some of the opportunities around standalone Vera, and potentially a view into the pipeline from the acquired Groq assets for low latency inference.” Wolfe Research: Outperform rating, $275 price target Wolfe analyst Chris Caso said Nvidia remains the firm’s top pick in its coverage given its competitive positioning, strong growth runway and discounted valuation. “We think expectations are for NVDA to beat JanQ consensus by its customary $2-3bn, with similar upside to guidance,” Caso said in a Monday note. “We think there is also the potential for up to $3bn upside from previously written down China revenue, which is not in estimates. For FY27, we think NVDA’s prior disclosures regarding Blackwell/Rubin orders suggest on the order of $20-50bn upside vs. consensus. Our current FY27 estimates reflect 68% y/y datacenter revenue growth, well below CSP CapEx, which is now expected to double y/y.” HSBC: Buy rating, $310 price target HSBC analyst Frank Lee maintained his buy rating on Nvidia, but recently lowered his price target on the stock by $10 to $310. That’s still significantly higher than the consensus analyst price target, per LSEG. “Despite the uncertainty around the export of Hopper series GPUs to China, we believe the demand for its GB200/GB300 racks will remain solid to deliver this ‘beat and raise,'” Lee said in a Tuesday note. “With c62% implied upside, we retain our Buy rating as we expect GPUs to account for the majority of hyperscalers’ capex and for the AI TAM to expand beyond traditional hyperscalers.” RBC Capital Markets: Outperform rating, $245 price target Analyst Srini Pajjuri is expecting a solid quarter ahead for Nvidia, forecasting strong Vera Rubin demand and healthy tech capex levels to support upside. “We are looking for a 3-4% beat/raise and expect management to talk-up and/or raise prior $500b+ backlog number for 2025/26. On GM, we feel comfortable despite surging Memory prices as we believe NVDA already locked in 2026 HBM pricing. Looking ahead, Blackwell-trained frontier model launches and GTC conference are potential catalysts. Our conversations in the supply-chain point to strong growth projections for Rubin, which should help extend the momentum into 2027. China (H200) is not in our model and valuation is at a double-digit discount to peers/Mag7,” the analyst wrote in a Feb. 18 note. JPMorgan: Overweight rating, $250 price target “We believe NVIDIA continues to execute across all segments. While 1H is typically seasonally weaker than 2H, we expect solid demand in PC gaming to be a strong revenue driver for the company, offsetting PC OEM, which is in secular decline. We expect the data center segment to grow strongly as hyperscale customers continue to embrace GPUaccelerated deep learning for processing large data sets,” analyst Harlan Sur wrote.
