Byron Callan, a defense analyst at Washington, D.C.–based Capital Alpha Partners, which advises investors on government policy matters, has handicapped five possible outcomes in Iran. The most likely, with a 40% probability, is Iran left declawed, with internal strife but not a military surrender. Less likely, at 25%, is a government collapse and transition to pro-U.S. rule, or at 20%, remaining leaders striking a U.S. commercial deal, similar to what has happened in Venezuela. A cease-fire with no deal has only a 15% chance but becomes more likely if fighting drags on and the U.S. stock market crashes, according to Callan. The least likely scenario, at 5%, is that Russia or China aid Iran militarily. Russia has limited capacity, and China has deep trading ties with Iran’s Gulf rivals.
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