- The US Dollar bounces ahead of the US trading session on Tuesday after hitting a three-year low on Monday.
- Questions arise if Fed speakers this Tuesday and later this week will defend their Chairman.
- The US Dollar Index stuck under the 100.00 marker as Trump intensifies attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is bouncing off a three-year low ahead of the US trading session. Markets got caught by surprise as the US Dollar took a hit during Asian trading hours while European and US markets were trading on limited capacity due to the Easter Monday bank holiday. United States President Donald Trump has shifted his focus now to the Federal Reserve (Fed) and lashed out at its Chairman Jerome Powell, calling him “a major loser” for not lowering interest rates while looking at ways to get rid of the Chairman, putting further downward pressure on the Greenback.
On the economic calendar front, all eyes are on the leading Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) preliminary data for April on Wednesday and the Durable Goods orders on Thursday. For this Tuesday, a slew of Fed speakers are lined up to speak, while the less-important Richmond Fed Manufacturing data for April will also be published.
In US equity markets, the focus will be on the Tesla (TSLA) earnings call after the US closing bell, when CEO Elon Musk could announce his departure date from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Daily digest market movers: Looking at the Fed
- At 13:30 GMT, Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, participates in a seminar on economic development at the University of Pennsylvania, focusing on regional growth and financial inclusion.
- At 14:00 GMT, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson gives a speech on “Economic mobility and the Dual Mandate” at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Economic Mobility Summit, Philadelphia.
- The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April is due in that same time span, around 14:00 GMT. Expectations are for further contraction to -6, coming from -4 in the previous reading.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will speak around 17:40 GMT as he participates in a Q&A at the US Chamber of Commerce Global Summit in Washington DC.
- Closing remarks for this Tuesday around 22:00 GMT from Federal Reserve Bank Governor Adriana Kugler, who gives a speech on “Transmission of Monetary Policy” at the Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute 2025 Roundtable, Minneapolis.
- After the US closing bell, all eyes will shift to Tesla earnings. Rumors are that Tesla Chairman Elon Musk is set to announce in the call his departure date from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), NBC reports.
- Equities are looking for direction on Tuesday with minor losses in Europe while US equities are up near 1% on average as they try to rebound from Monday’s losses.
- The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May’s meeting at 10.4% against no changes at 89.6%. The June meeting is still having around 62% chances for a rate cut.
- The US 10-year yields trade around 4.37% after US bonds have been selling off quite substantially over the past few weeks.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Normal detox
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is saying goodbye to the 100.00 marker for now. Incurred losses from Monday are being consolidated this Tuesday while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is penetrating the oversold area. More downside could be rather limited from here as some sort of technical bounce looks likely before the DXY could drop another leg lower.
On the upside, first resistance comes in at 99.58, which could trigger a firm rejection in any recovery attempts. Should Dollar bulls resurface, look for 100.22 with a break back above 100.00 as a bullish signal of their return. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90, which acted as head-and-shoulders base line since 2023.
On the other hand, the low at 97.73 is very close by and could snap at any moment. Further below, a rather thin technical support comes in at 96.94, before starting to look at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, which would mean fresh lows not seen since 2022.
US Dollar Index: Daily Chart
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
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