The Indian rupee started at 92.66 against the US dollar on Thursday, April 9, as worries grew that the ceasefire in Iran might not completely restore oil shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices up and putting pressure on riskier assets.
Brent crude futures for July increased by over 2% to $96.76, following a sharp drop of 13.2% in the prior session due to optimism that a ceasefire between the US and Iran would enable oil transport to resume through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, new doubts about the sustainability of the truce have left investors cautious.
On Wednesday, Israel continued its strikes on Lebanon, prompting Iran to claim that it would be “unreasonable” to continue discussions aimed at establishing a permanent peace agreement.
At the same time, shipping companies stated on Wednesday that they required greater clarity regarding the conditions of the ceasefire prior to restarting transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Just as global cues had begun to shape market sentiment, domestic factors stepped in with quiet confidence. The Reserve Bank of India kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25%—a move widely anticipated—but it was the tone of assurance that stood out, according to experts.
The RBI Governor highlighted a stable macro outlook, projecting GDP growth at a strong 6.9% and inflation at 4.6% for FY27, while forex reserves remain robust at $697.1 billion. The central bank also expects a recovery in foreign portfolio investment flows, particularly into sectors like technology and financial services, marking a shift after last year’s heavy outflows.
According to experts, the message was clear: the macro environment remains under control—and markets tend to respond positively to such clarity backed by data.
Adding to the optimism is India’s expected Free Trade Agreement with New Zealand, likely to be announced on April 24. The agreement could provide tariff-free access for Indian goods and potentially attract up to $20 billion in investments over the next 15 years, according to experts.
Taken together—easing global pressures, softer crude prices, a stable dollar, and the RBI’s steady stance—these factors are aligning to support market sentiment in the near term.
Rupee Outlook
Amit Pabari, MD, Research Team of CR Forex Advisors said that the rupee has now broken below the crucial 92.80–93.00 support zone, indicating a shift in near-term momentum. A sustained move below 92.50 could open doors towards 91.80–92.00 levels. On the flip side, any pullback may face resistance near 93.20–93.50.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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