Australia will publish the monthly employment report for March on Thursday at 01:30 GMT, and market participants expect a modest increase in job creation. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to announce that the country added 20K new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast at 4.3%, unchanged from February. The Participation Rate, in the meantime, stood at 66.9% in the previous month.
The ABS reports both full-time and part-time positions through the monthly Employment Change. Generally speaking, full-time jobs entail working 38 hours or more per week, usually include additional benefits, and typically provide a consistent income. On the other hand, part-time employment generally means higher hourly rates but lacks consistency and benefits. That’s why the economy prefers full-time jobs. In February, Australia gained 79.4K part-time positions and lost 30.5K full-time ones.
Australian unemployment rate steady in March
Australia’s employment figures may be overshadowed by ongoing optimism. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is firmly up against the battered US Dollar (USD) as investors assess the developments of the Iran war. An extension of the ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran is on the table, boosting the market’s mood despite the double blockage of the Strait of Hormuz.
The ongoing crisis in the Middle East dominates financial markets, as the interruption of crude oil and gas supply has boosted inflationary pressures globally. Central banks are shifting towards a more hawkish monetary policy approach, although that’s not the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which turned hawkish ahead of the war, amid domestic capacity pressures keeping inflation above target and strength in the labor market, according to the statement accompanying the March monetary policy decision. The Iran war was just another factor that lean the scale towards a tighter monetary policy.
As a result, the RBA hiked interest rates, increasing the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 4.1%, as policymakers noted that, “while inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, it picked up materially in the second half of 2025.” It was quite a split decision, with policymakers voting 5:4 in favor of a hike.
The anticipated employment figures are not really outstanding, and 20K new jobs are hardly enough to prompt by themself a RBA reaction, but coupled with domestic inflationary pressures and the extension of the Iran figure, will pretty much confirm more interest rate hikes are coming this year.
Stronger-than-anticipated job creation, coupled with a decreasing Unemployment Rate, should reinforce rate hike expectations and hence, push the Aussie up against most major rivals. A dismal employment report, on the other hand, could help diminish concerns about the labor market’s strength, but it won’t be sufficient to consider a shift in the current hawkish monetary policy. Near term, it could weigh on the AUD, but as long as risk-on backs USD weakness, the pair is likely to resume its advance once market players digest the news and turn back their eyes to the Middle East.
When will the Australian employment report be released and how could it affect AUD/USD?
The ABS March employment report will be released early on Thursday. As previously noted, the Australian economy is expected to have added 20K new jobs in the month, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast at 4.3%. Market participants will also be attentive to the breakdown of full-time and part-time positions.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The AUD/USD pair trades well above the 0.7100 mark and a handful of pips below the 2026 peak at 0.7187 ahead of the employment report release. The technical picture is bullish and there’s a good chance that upbeat data hinting at additional rate hikes would push the pair beyond the mentioned top. The pair could initially run towards the 0.7230 region, while additional gains will find the next resistance at 0.7270.”
Bednarik adds: “As long as markets remain optimistic about the Iran war, the Greenback is set to remain on the back foot, which means the bearish scope for AUD/USD is limited. Employment figures need to be really discouraging to trigger a decline, which, anyway, should be short-lived. The immediate downward barrier is the 0.7100 threshold, followed by the 0.7060 price zone. Further declines seem unlikely within the release, although sudden USD demand can push the pair down to 0.7000.”
Economic Indicator
Unemployment Rate s.a.
The Unemployment Rate, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the rate increases, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market and a weakness within the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an increase is seen as bearish.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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