The Indian stock market has navigated a phase of heightened volatility over the past year, shaped by persistent geopolitical disruptions and evolving domestic macroeconomic conditions. As India prepares to celebrate Akshaya Tritiya on Sunday, a review of asset class performance indicates that equity indices have underperformed safe-haven gold.
Gold has emerged as a standout performer, delivering strong returns since Akshaya Tritiya 2025, driven by sustained central bank and investor buying amid macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, reaffirming its status as the pre-eminent safe-haven asset. Against this backdrop, the benchmark Nifty 50 index has remained largely subdued.
While gold prices have delivered 62% returns since the last Akshaya Tritiya on 30 April, 2025, the Nifty 50 has risen by just 0.7%.
The divergence is stark, as only two of Nifty 50 constituents — Shiram Finance and Hindalco — have outperformed the yellow metal, underscoring a shift in investor preference towards safety.
Shriram Finance share price has rallied nearly 69%, and Hindalco Industries share price has jumped 67.7% during the period, surpassing the gold price rally of 62%, as per data compiled by Mint.
Among other stocks, Tata Steel shares gained 53.8%, and Bharat Electronics (BEL) share price surged 46%, but could not beat the yellow metal’s bull run.
Analysts believe Shriram Finance and Hindalco Industries have complemented India’s structural growth story, each commanding leadership through fiscal discipline and operational agility.
“Shriram Finance has successfully transitioned into a diversified financial powerhouse, boasting a Net Interest Margin (NIM) of 8.5% and a robust Return on Assets (RoA) of 3.1%. By maintaining a high Capital Adequacy Ratio of 20.5%, the company has created a fortress balance sheet capable of weathering credit cycles while aggressively capturing the MSME and gold loan segments,” said Avinash Gorakshakar, market expert and private wealth management consultant.
In parallel, Hindalco Industries has redefined the metals narrative by evolving from a cyclical commodity player into a high-margin value-added leader.
“With an India EBITDA margin of 20% and a lean Net Debt/EBITDA of 1.4x, Hindalco is generating a 14.2% RoCE that comfortably outpaces its cost of capital,” said Gorakshakar.
Meanwhile, Gorakshakar believes these entities collectively offer a compelling investment case: Shriram provides a high-yield play on India’s domestic credit deepening, while Hindalco offers a resilient, de-leveraged gateway to global infrastructure and green energy transitions.
“For investors, the fundamental outlook for both remains bullish, anchored by strong cash flows and a proven ability to maintain profitability despite global macroeconomic cross-currents,” he said.
Shriram Finance Share Price
Shriram Finance share price is up 1% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, while it has rallied 52% in six months. The stock has delivered multibagger returns of 115% in two years and 275% in five years.
Shriram Finance stock has jumped 19% in just four sessions, forming a strong pole followed by a six-session flag consolidation. The flag structure reflects a controlled pause, with price holding firm and indicating absence of aggressive profit booking, said Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments.
“This continuation pattern suggests underlying strength, with buyers maintaining dominance. The consolidation near high points to absorption before the next leg up. A decisive breakout above ₹1,040 would confirm resumption of bullish momentum, opening upside toward the ₹1,085 zone. The lower end of the flag acts as immediate support, and a breakdown below it would invalidate the continuation setup and signal short-term exhaustion,” said Jain.
Hindalco Share Price
Hindalco Industries share price has risen 15% on a YTD basis and has gained 34% in the past six months. The stock has jumped 70% in two years, while posting a multibagger return of 179% in five years.
On the technical front, Hindalco share price has formed a 50-day flat base and recently attempted a breakout above the ₹1,010 level, indicating a potential continuation setup.
“However, the breakout lacks volume expansion, suggesting weak participation and raising the risk of a false move. Price structure remains constructive, but momentum needs confirmation. A time correction with moving averages, catching up on both daily and weekly timeframes, would strengthen the base and improve risk-reward. Such consolidation could offer a more reliable long entry,” said Jain.
According to him, a sustained move above ₹1,010 with volume support can trigger upside toward ₹1,100. Failure to hold above the breakout zone would invalidate the setup and signal near-term weakness.
Gold Price Outlook
Analysts expect gold prices to maintain a positive bias in 2026, as either a stagflationary environment or lower crude oil prices would be supportive for bullion in the period ahead.
“Gold prices may once again retest the $5,300 – $5,500 range over the next year, implying an upside of around 10–15% from current levels. In the domestic market, we expect prices to reach ₹1,70,000 – ₹1,85,000 over the same period,” said Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst- Commodities, Axis Securities.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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