The upcoming six-month period has historically been such a bad stretch for the stock market that Wall Street has an adage for it: “Sell in May and go away.” Data compiled by CFRA’s Sam Stovall shows the S & P 500 has averaged a gain of just 2% between April 30 and Oct. 31 going back to 1945. Between Oct. 31 and April 30, the benchmark averages an advance of nearly 7%. In recent years, however, investors who sold in May and went away missed out on sharp advances. JPMorgan’s trading desk pointed out that, over the past 10 years, the S & P 500 has averaged a return of 1.5% in May and a 1.9% pop in June. Returns are even stronger in July at an average of 3.4%. The benchmark also has also climbed 0.9% in August and 0.7% in October, while it pulls back by 0.5% in September. Many investors are already bracing to stay invested between May and October , as they await a potential resolution to the U.S.-Iran war that would boost equities. Stocks have also performed well during this period under President Donald Trump. “During Trump Presidency Years, the S & P 500 has tended to carve out a spring bottom in late March to early April before staging meaningful advances into year-end,” Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, said in an email earlier this week. “S & P 500’s low close was March 30. The two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire has held — and despite weekend peace talks ending without a deal, a new round of in-person negotiations is in the works this week. So far, 2026 is tracking the Trump Presidency seasonal pattern closely,” he said. .SPX YTD mountain SPX year to date Indeed, the S & P 500 has rallied back to record levels above 7,100. The benchmark was set to rise again on Thursday following the release of strong quarterly reports from Alphabet and Amazon.
