The biggest horse race in the country, the Kentucky Derby, takes place Saturday in Louisville. If you’re looking to make a wager on Kalshi, Polymarket or another prediction platform around the event — you’re out of luck.
There are no Kentucky Derby event contracts offered on the major prediction platforms, which host contracts on everything from sports outcomes to geopolitical events to reality TV show moments, but not horse racing.
Bill Carstanjen, CEO of Churchill Downs, which owns the Kentucky Derby and the racetrack where it’s held, told CNBC it’s unlikely that horse racing will ever show up on prediction markets because the race track owners don’t want it.
“You need to actually go to us, those who own the race tracks, to cut a deal,” Carstanjen said in an interview this week. “And from our perspective, that’s not something we’re interested in doing.”
Horse racing has long been something of its own little fiefdom. Betting on the races, America’s original form of sports betting dating back to the colonial era, enjoyed special status even before the Supreme Court in 2018 struck down a law that prevented states other than Nevada from offering sports betting.
By law, under the Interstate Horseracing Act of 1978, offering wagers on horses requires explicit permission from the host race track, the horsemen’s group made up of owners and trainers and the state racing commission where the race is held.
That’s left the burgeoning prediction markets industry on the outs.
“Prediction markets are not something that that would be good for horse racing, or the economic paradigm under which our industry works, which involves funding purses for the winners of the horse race,” Carstanjen said.
Kalshi declined to comment on the absence of horseracing on its platform. Polymarket didn’t respond to a request for comment. And representatives for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates event contracts, likewise didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The tension raises an interesting question of when — and in what context — permission is needed for prediction market platforms to offer contracts on a given event.
U.S. states have argued companies like Kalshi and Polymarket need their permission (via a license) to offer wagers on sports. Prediction platforms have maintained they don’t need licenses because their platforms offer investing and trading activity, not gambling, and because they’re regulated by the CFTC.
The CFTC has filed multiple lawsuits against states seeking to prevent them from taking action against prediction platforms.
Kentucky, for its part, has taken a tough stance on predictions. Lawmakers in the state have proposed legislation that would ban any of its gambling licensees from offering predictions. It’s also proposed a 17.5% tax on prediction market fees.
Meanwhile, there’s still old-fashioned gambling set for Saturday’s Derby. Churchill Downs said it’s seeing increased betting during Derby Week leading up to the big race.
Caesars, too, said the amount of money wagered on the Kentucky Derby is pacing ahead of expectations.
— CNBC’s Jessica Golden contributed to this report.
Disclosure: Kalshi and CNBC have a commercial relationship which includes a minority investment.
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