Prime Minister Narendra Modi this week urged Indians to postpone buying gold for at least one year, arguing that heavy bullion imports are putting pressure on India’s foreign exchange reserves at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty due to the ongoing West Asia crisis.
The appeal came alongside a sharp hike in import duties on precious metals. India has raised the effective import tariff on gold and silver to 15% from 10% earlier, reversing the duty cuts announced in 2024. The revised rates, notified by the finance ministry on May 12, came into effect from May 13.
The government increased the basic customs duty on several categories of gold and silver imports to 10% from 5%, while the 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC) remains unchanged, taking the total effective levy to 15%.
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India has raised import duties on gold and silver to 15% to curb rising bullion imports, narrow the trade deficit, and support the rupee amid geopolitical uncertainty and elevated crude oil prices.
The total effective import tax on gold and silver in India has been raised to 15%. This includes a 10% basic customs duty and a 5% Agriculture Infrastructure and Development Cess (AIDC).
Several Nifty500 stocks have significantly outperformed gold over the past year. At least 13 stocks more than doubled investor wealth, while gold delivered returns of around 63.4%.
The higher tariffs are expected to dampen demand for gold in India and help reduce the trade deficit and support the rupee. However, industry experts caution that elevated duties might lead to a rise in smuggling.
While gold can be a hedge during uncertain times, equities have shown potential for superior returns. For Indian investors, rupee depreciation may cushion downside risks for gold, and medium to long-term outlook remains bullish, with corrections viewed as accumulation opportunities.
The move is aimed at curbing rising bullion imports, narrowing the trade deficit and supporting the rupee, which has remained under pressure amid elevated crude oil prices and global uncertainty.
Gold prices have surged sharply over the past year as investors flocked to safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions, central bank buying and concerns around slowing global growth. MCX Gold delivered returns of around 63.4% over the last one year. However, when it comes to wealth creation, several Indian equities still managed to comfortably outperform bullion during the same period.
13 Nifty500 stocks more than doubled investor wealth
Data compiled from the Nifty500 universe showed that at least 13 stocks more than doubled investor wealth over the past one year, significantly outperforming gold returns.
Among the top performers was Ather Energy, which emerged as the biggest gainer with returns of 198.3% over the last year. It was followed by Multi Commodity Exchange of India, which surged 161.3%, and GE Vernova T&D India, which gained 155.2%.
Metal stocks also featured prominently in the outperformer list as rising commodity prices and infrastructure spending boosted sentiment. Hindustan Copper rallied 153.9%, while National Aluminium Company advanced 134.5% during the same period.
Technology and industrial names also delivered strong returns. Netweb Technologies India gained 133.6%, while Kirloskar Oil Engines rose 125.7%. Laurus Labs climbed 114.6%, and Schneider Electric Infrastructure rallied 106.5% over the past year.
Beyond the multibaggers, several other companies still comfortably beat gold’s one-year gains. These included Adani Power with returns of 92.8%, Vedanta at 86.6%, Cummins India at 81.9% and Bharat Heavy Electricals at 68.7%.
Financial and telecom names also made the list, with Aditya Birla Capital returning 66.4% and Vodafone Idea gaining 67.2% over the past year.
The comparison highlights that while gold continues to remain an important hedge during uncertain times, equities can still generate significantly superior long-term returns when investors identify the right sectors and themes. With sectors such as power, capital goods, metals, defence and manufacturing witnessing strong momentum over the past year, many stocks managed to outpace even the sharp rally seen in bullion prices.
Should you still buy gold?
Tata Mutual Fund expects gold prices to consolidate in the near term, amid mixed macro signals—“higher for longer” US rates, a stronger dollar, and elevated bond yields. Short term volatility of around ±5% is likely. Geopolitical developments, particularly around the US–Iran conflict, could keep prices volatile with on off ceasefire headlines.
“For Indian investors, rupee depreciation should cushion the downside, keeping domestic gold prices in a tighter range versus international markets. Medium to long term, the outlook remains bullish, supported by favorable structural and cyclical fundamentals. Any meaningful correction should be viewed as an accumulation opportunity,” suggested the MF.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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