Adani Power share price: Shares of billionaire Gautam Adani-owned Adani Power have strongly defied Indian stock market weakness, surging nearly 71% over the last year, and it appears it is ready to extend gains further after an appellate Tribunal’s favourable ruling.
On Friday, 21 August, the stock inched up about half a per cent in morning trade on the BSE, looking set to snap its two-day losing run after the Appellate Tribunal for Electricity (APTEL) ruling in the company’s favour.
In an exchange filing on 20 August, Adani Power said APTEL set aside the Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (MERC) earlier order, directing MERC to issue consequential orders and recompute the company’s Change in Law compensation, based on APTEL’s previous judgment.
Adani Power shares have delivered multibagger returns over longer timeframes. In the last three and five years, the stock has surged 214% and 1,216%, respectively, as per BSE data. This year so far, the stock has jumped 37%.
The stock hit a 52-week high of ₹254.15 on 29 May this year and a 52-week low of ₹116.67 on 29 August.
What’s next for the stock?
According to experts, the appeal win against the MERC order on change-in-law compensation matters more for what it removes than what it immediately adds.
According to Vinit Bolinjkar, the head of research at Ventura, the recent decision by the APTEL to set aside the earlier MERC order comes as a major positive for Adani Power.
“By asking the regulator to reassess the ‘Change in Law’ compensation using clear, established operational metrics, the tribunal has essentially cleared up a multi-year regulatory haze that was hanging over the company’s receivables,” said Bolinjkar.
Bolinjkar sees three key drivers for the stock going forward:
1. Clearer path to cash recovery: Bolinjkar said this ruling opens the door for Adani Power to finally realise long-pending regulatory dues and carrying costs.
“As these funds come in, they will provide a solid boost to cash flows, helping fund ongoing capacity expansion and giving the company room to pay down debt further,” said Bolinjkar.
2. Lower regulatory risk premium: As per Bolinjkar, protracted legal disputes have traditionally weighed on valuations across the power sector. Resolving this issue reduces litigation uncertainty, bringing much-needed stability and predictability to future earnings.
3. Favourable industry tailwinds: Bolinjkar underscored that India’s power demand continues to hit record highs, and Adani Power’s mix of long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) and flexible merchant capacity puts it in a strong spot to capture market growth.
“Overall, we view this ruling as a strong fundamental catalyst for Adani Power. Over the near to medium term, the key thing to track will be the exact revised figures issued by MERC and how quickly state discoms process the actual cash payouts,” said Bolinjkar.
Harshal Dasani, Business Head at INVAsset PMS, pointed out that regulatory disputes of this kind sit on power-sector stocks as an unquantified overhang, and every favourable resolution converts a contingent claim into a recoverable, improving both receivables visibility and, over time, the sector’s discount rate.
“The compensation is directed to be computed under the applicable framework, so the cash impact arrives with a lag, and the quantum will only be known on determination, which is exactly why the market treats this as sentiment relief rather than an earnings event,” said Dasani.
“A credit upgrade, a funding mandate, an earnings beat, and regulatory relief in the same month is an unusually clean alignment, and the rating upgrade specifically lowers the cost of capital funding the group’s roadmap toward roughly 42 GW by FY32 from about 18 GW today,” Dasani highlighted.
From here, the drivers shift from legal to operational.
Dasani suggests watching three things: (i) the actual compensation determination and its timing, (ii) deployment of the ₹15,000 crore against capacity additions, and (iii) merchant power realisations through the demand season, which remains the swing factor for a company with meaningful uncontracted capacity.
“Within our constructive view on the power sector, Adani Power now has fewer overhangs and more visibility than at any point in recent years, and the stock’s next leg depends on execution against that capacity roadmap rather than on any further headlines,” said Dasani.
Adani Power shares: What do tech charts indicate?
Adani Power is currently trading near the crucial ₹200 support zone, which coincides with the monthly pivot support, making it an important level to watch.
Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Technical Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, underscored that an RSI near 37 indicates weak momentum and suggests the stock is approaching an oversold territory, while the MACD appears to be losing downside momentum, hinting at possible stabilisation.
“Given these technical signals, the stock may enter a consolidation phase rather than witness an immediate sharp decline. We expect the stock to consolidate broadly between ₹195 and ₹205 in the near term. A sustained move above ₹205 could trigger fresh buying interest and pave the way for further upside,” said Patel.
According to Vipin Kumar, AVP-Research at Globe Capital Market, after hitting a lifetime high in May 2026, the stock has been going through a corrective phase and has almost reached a support confluence zone—its six-month-long exponential moving average placed at ₹199 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous up move placed at ₹192.
“Going ahead, we expect the ongoing corrective move to halt around this support confluence zone and suggest that traders accumulate the stock on dips from a medium-term perspective,” said Kumar.
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Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
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