Friday starts with several markets sitting at genuinely important technical decision points.
Some of the bullish scenarios we mapped earlier this week have already delivered – particularly across precious metals – while the dollar remains vulnerable below a key broken support area.
Gold is defending its recent breakout, silver is pushing toward the psychological 7000 barrier, and platinum has already completed the bullish roadmap we first laid out on August 7. At the same time, palladium and copper are trying to turn recent technical improvements into something more meaningful.
With the week coming to an end, today is about watching which breakouts buyers can actually defend into the close.
US Dollar (DX.F) – Below 99, bears still have the upper hand
Despite yesterday’s rebound and the successful defense of the mid-May bullish gap at98.72-98.83, the dollar still finished the session below the lower boundary of the red descending channel.
And today’s Asian session brought another bearish development.
A new bearish gap opened at98.71-98.81, pushing the greenback below its nearest support – the same mid-May bullish gap – once again.
For now, the support zone created by the 50% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracements at98.30-98.45remains untouched. However, if bears manage to secure a daily close below98.72, this area becomes their first downside target.
There’s another important piece of the puzzle here.
The dollar is still trading below99, which means yesterday’s outlook – including the potential downside target based on the flag formation – remains very much in play today.
In other words, as long as sellers can keep the greenback below the broken technical levels, they still have room to push lower.
What invalidates the bearish scenario?A closure of today’s bearish gap followed by a daily close above99.
Takeaway:Watch98.72 and 99. Daily close below 98.72 → opens the door toward98.30-98.45. Recovery above 99 → invalidates the current bearish scenario.
Platinum (PL.F) – Target hit. What’s next?
Let’s begin with yesterday’s roadmap:
“(…) as long as platinum does not produce a daily close below1798, bulls remain in control and continuation higher remains the path of least resistance.
The first area to watch is around1874– the minimum upside target based on the height of the earlier orange consolidation. Beyond that, the psychological1900level remains firmly on the radar. (…)”
Now look at what happened next.
Despite bears’ attack the bullish gap at1810-1836remained intact, confirming that buyers were still defending the move. As a result, today’s Asian session then opened higher at1835-1840, and bulls continued marching north.
The result? Platinum broke above 1900, completing the bullish scenario we originally mapped out in ourAugust 10 update.
And yes –congratulations to everyone who had enough patience to let this one develop. Consolidations can be frustrating while they’re happening, but this is exactly why we map the trigger and wait for the market to confirm it.
What comes next?With the original bullish roadmap now completed, the next upside target sits around1927-1930.
What invalidates the bullish scenario?A daily close below1810.
Takeaway:Watch1900as the immediate battleground. Holding above 1900 → keeps buyers in control and opens the way toward1927-1930. Daily close below 1810 → invalidates the current bullish scenario.
Quick levels – Friday cheat sheet
U.S. Dollar (DX.F)
Watch98.72 / 99.
→Daily close below 98.72:bears target98.30-98.45.
→Close today’s gap + daily close above 99:bearish scenario invalidated.
Platinum (PL.F)
Watch1900.
→Holding above 1900:next target1927-1930.
→Daily close below 1810:bullish scenario invalidated.
Friday bottom line
Precious metals enter Friday with buyers firmly in the game, but several markets are now approaching the exact levels whereconfirmation matters. Silver has7000, platinum is testing1900, palladium is fighting1373, and gold still has4654-4685ahead.
Meanwhile, the dollar remains vulnerable below99, while copper has just given bulls something they didn’t have yesterday:a successful reclaim of its rising channel.
Don’t chase the move. Watch the levels, wait for the close, and let the market tell you which breakout deserves to survive the weekend.
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