(WO) — Planned pipeline expansions and new export routes could provide enough takeaway capacity to support 2–3 MMbpd of Western Canadian oil production growth into the late 2030s, according to new analysis from Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR).
EIR forecasts Western Canada Sedimentary basin (WCSB) oil production will grow by approximately 200,000 bpd annually through 2035. Pipeline capacity is expected to remain ahead of producer needs for most of the next decade, reducing the risk of transportation bottlenecks and the steep crude discounts that have periodically constrained Canadian producers.
The research identifies approximately 1 MMbpd of firm additional takeaway capacity from existing pipeline optimization, broader system expansions and the proposed Prairie Connector-Bridger project.
EIR expects Western Canadian Select (WCS) differentials to remain around $12–$15/bbl below West Texas Intermediate (WTI), roughly reflecting the cost of transporting crude to the U.S. Gulf Coast.
Among proposed greenfield pipelines, EIR ranks Prairie Connector-Bridger as the most likely to advance, citing its committed developer, viable route and commercial support. The project has secured 465,000 bpd of 20-year shipper commitments.
The proposed West Coast Oil Pipeline ranks second in EIR’s assessment and would be the largest of the proposed projects, with capacity exceeding 1 MMbpd.
With transportation constraints easing, EIR expects upstream factors to play a greater role in determining the pace of future Canadian oil growth. The firm forecasts approximately 1.3 MMbpd of additional oil sands production through 2035, while identifying producer capital discipline and diluent availability as potential constraints.
Incremental condensate demand could increase by approximately 500,000 bpd by the mid-2030s as oil sands output expands, potentially creating another infrastructure requirement.
“The outlook for Canadian oil production is changing as pipeline capacity moves ahead of producer needs for much of the coming decade,” said Kyle Bertamini, principal analyst at EIR. “That reduces the risk that transportation constraints will once again become the primary brake on Western Canadian growth, although capital allocation and diluent availability could increasingly determine how much of that available capacity is ultimately filled.”
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