Stock market prediction for Monday, 21 September 2026: The Indian stock market ended the truncated trading week on a weak note, weighed down by elevated crude oil prices and rising global bond yields.
Concerns over the near-term inflationary impact of higher energy costs, along with their potential drag on economic growth, continued to weigh on investor sentiment.
Sensex, Nifty: What happened last week?
For the week, the Sensex declined 0.65% to close at 74,294.46, while the Nifty slipped 0.22% to end at 23,346.40. Broader market indices, including the midcap and smallcap segments, remained largely flat after a volatile week, following several weeks of outperformance.
On Friday, Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended on a mixed note as gains from softer crude oil prices were offset by weakness in IT stocks and Tata Group counters.
The 30-share BSE Sensex surrendered its intraday gains during the Closing Auction Session (CAS), falling 19.63 points, or 0.03%. The index had climbed as much as 413.85 points, or 0.55 per cent, during the session to hit 74,728.44. Meanwhile, the 50-share NSE Nifty advanced 75.80 points, or 0.33% extending its winning streak to three consecutive sessions.
Top five stock market triggers for next week
- US-Iran war: According to reports, Iran’s top security official says Qatar has conveyed Tehran’s terms to Washington for ending the war, with Iran awaiting Trump’s response.
- US tariffs: The US House of Representatives has also approved a Russia sanctions bill that would empower President Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying Russian oil and gas. The move could directly affect major importers such as India and China, with potential repercussions for global trade and energy flows.
- Crude oil prices: Globally, updates on US-Iran tensions, movements in crude oil prices and Treasury yields will remain key market drivers, says market experts.
- FII flows: Foreign institutional investors (FIIs/FPIs) emerged as net buyers in the cash market on September 18, purchasing shares worth ₹599.54 crore more than they sold. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) also remained net buyers, with net purchases of ₹1,019.69 crore.
- Rupee vs Dollar: At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 95.75 against the US dollar and strengthened marginally to an intraday high of 95.71 during the first half of the session. However, it later came under pressure and ended at the day’s low of 95.96, registering a decline of 7 paise from the previous close.
Sensex, Nifty prediction for tomorrow: Sensex, Nifty outlook
Gift Nifty
Gift Nifty ended 0.26% lower at 23,300.50 on Saturday, 19 September.
Sensex
The BSE Sensex closed at 74,294.96, declining 19.63 points (-0.03%). After opening at 74,575.24, the index touched a high of 74,728.44 and a low of 74,294.96. Despite the gap-up opening, the benchmark remained largely sideways and ended the session on a marginally negative note, reflecting limited buying momentum.
“The Sensex is likely to maintain a sideways outlook, with the 73,500–73,700 zone acting as the broader support area. Sustained buying above 74,600 could support a recovery towards 74,800–75,000, while weakness below 74,000 may increase downside pressure. Traders should monitor the key OI levels and wait for a decisive breakout or breakdown before taking fresh directional positions,” said Sachin Gupta, VP – Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited.
Nifty 50
On the Nifty 50 outlook, Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking, after six consecutive weeks of decline, the 23,000-23,100 zone remains a critical support area for the Nifty.
“A decisive break below this range could result in further weakness towards the 22,400-22,600 zone. On the upside, 23,600 will act as an immediate hurdle, followed by the 23,900-24,200 zone,” Mishra said.
US markets performance
Wall Street ended a volatile week on a subdued note on Friday, with benchmark US Treasury yields climbing above 5% and crude oil prices reversing earlier gains but holding above $100 a barrel. The developments kept concerns over persistent inflation in focus.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 95.40 points, or 0.18%, to 51,682.64. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 rose 12.74 points, or 0.17%, to 7,650.50, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 104.25 points, or 0.40%, to 26,522.55.
Crude oil prices
Crude oil prices declined for the third straight session on Friday, ending the week largely unchanged as expectations grew that the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline would have a smaller impact on global supplies than initially anticipated.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 1.6% to settle at $100.30 a barrel, while Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 0.9% to close at $103.87 a barrel. WTI ended the week nearly flat, whereas Brent declined by about 1%.
Oil prices have still climbed more than 5% since a drone attack launched from Iraq damaged the Saudi pipeline last Thursday, prompting its shutdown.
South Korea’s Kospi index performance
South Korean stocks ended a volatile week largely flat, with a strong recovery in semiconductor shares and renewed foreign buying helping the Kospi regain ground after an early-week sell-off triggered by concerns over oil prices, inflation and geopolitical tensions.
The benchmark Kospi closed at 6,894.23 on September 18, down 15.68 points, or 0.23%, from the previous week’s close of 6,909.91. The index, however, witnessed sharp swings during the five trading sessions.
Japan’s Nikkei index performance
Japan’s equity markets ended higher on Friday, supported by gains across the Real Estate, Banking and Textile sectors.
At the close in Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 advanced 1.52%. Kioxia Holdings Corp emerged as the top performer on the Nikkei 225, surging 9.40%, or 4,690 points, to close at 54,570.00.
Taiwan stock market
Taiwan’s benchmark stock index extended its gains on Friday, climbing above the 47,000-point level.
The Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Index (TAIEX) ended the session at its high of 47,180.75, rising 892.75 points, or 1.93%. Over the week, the index advanced 995.9 points, or 2.16%. According to the Taiwan Stock Exchange, the total market capitalisation of listed companies stood at NT$154.3 trillion.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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