Gold price prediction: Gold prices are expected to remain volatile and move within a range in the coming week as traders monitor movements in the US dollar and bond yields, developments in the West Asia conflict and trends in crude oil prices, according to market analysts.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for October delivery climbed ₹1,597, or 1.04%, last week to settle at ₹1.54 lakh per 10 grams. Silver futures also advanced ₹6,629, or nearly 3%, ending the week at ₹2.41 lakh per kilogram.
In international markets, Comex gold futures for December delivery closed marginally higher at $4,424.9 per ounce. Silver prices also rose 3% to $67.15 per ounce in New York.
What’s driving gold prices?
Following a week shaped by monetary policy decisions and geopolitical developments, investors are set to focus on a fresh set of economic indicators, including mid-month manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings from major economies.
Towards the end of the week, US housing data, durable goods orders and consumer sentiment figures will also be closely monitored. These indicators are expected to provide cues on the outlook for monetary policy and their potential impact on bullion demand, analysts said.
“Gold and silver began the week under pressure as investors positioned ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, with rising expectations of a rate hike pushing Treasury yields higher and weighing on non-yielding assets. The pressure persisted even as geopolitical and supply risks intensified, with a Saudi East-West pipeline outage and an attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz adding to concerns over disruptions to Middle East energy flows. Fed hike expectations rose to around 86.5% two days before Wednesday’s decision, reinforcing the upward pressure on yields and limiting demand for bullion,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
Gold price outlook for next week
According to Ponmudi, the Federal Reserve’s hawkish dot plot, rather than the rate hike itself, is likely to remain the dominant driver for precious metals.
Gold is expected to remain highly sensitive to movements in Treasury yields, the US dollar and inflation data, as well as further signals on the pace and timing of additional tightening. At the same time, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and fiscal concerns could provide intermittent safe-haven support.
On the technical outlook, he added that MCX Gold closed the week firmer at ₹1,54,381, gaining 1.07% and rebounding from the ₹1,50,000 zone after a period of consolidation. The weekly RSI has climbed to 55, while the daily RSI at 53 points to improving short-term momentum.
“On the upside, immediate resistance is placed at ₹1,54,000– ₹1,54,700, followed by the next resistance zone at ₹1,56,300– ₹1,57,000. On the downside, immediate support lies at ₹1,50,000– ₹1,50,700, followed by ₹1,47,300– ₹1,48,000. A decisive break below ₹1,50,000 could deepen the current pullback. Overall, MCX Gold is stabilising after its recent consolidation, with the broader bullish structure remaining intact as long as prices hold above ₹1,50,000,” he said.
Meanwhile, brokerage firm Choice Broking highlighted that after a short correction, the precious yellow metal still remained into Rising channel, sustaining over its all key moving averages i.e. 20, 50 and 100-DEMA levels placed at 153392, 152188 and 150793 respectively.
“On the upside, major resistance level would be at 163,100 and breakout of this level will boost bullish momentum in Gold price in upcoming sessions. Along with price rebound, we can observe a decline in OI level to 8,100 lots, indicating Short covering in current contract. The momentum indicator, RSI is trailing over 50 on Daily timeframe,” the firm said in its Weekly Commodity Outlook report.
It further added that the overall trend in Gold price is expected to be Sideways-to Bullish in the coming week, and traders should keep an eye on key US economic data such as New home sales, Consumer sentiment, Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI and Unemployment claims, which are scheduled to be in next week.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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