Stock market prediction: The key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market continued to trade under pressure last week, and the Nifty 50 index finished lower for the seventh straight week, the longest losing streak of the 50-stock index in the last six years. The benchmark index declined nearly 0.88% to close at 23,140, while the Bank Nifty declined 1.38% to close at 55,580. Likewise, the Sensex lost 1.13%, or 843 points, over the last five sessions.
According to stock market experts, the pain in the Indian stock market is not over yet, as the Nifty 50 index has formed a bearish candle on the weekly chart, hinting at a break below its crucial support levels at 23,000 and 22,800. However, experts expect the Indian stock market to top out in October 2026. They also predicted the US 10-year bond yield to top out in October 2026 ahead of the US Midterm Elections 2026. They said that pressure on the US government to justify soaring inflation, defence expenditure, and the debt crisis caused by rising US bond yields may lead to manipulation of US Treasury yields, and, in extreme cases, the White House may also follow Japan’s lead and fix US Treasury yields.
Sensex, Nifty to Bank Nifty | Why experts see more pain?
Pointing towards the painful factors that may continue to dictate the key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market in the near term, Ganesh Dongre, Assistant Vice President — Equity Research at Anand Rathi, said, “From a macro perspective, geopolitical uncertainties remain elevated, particularly around the US–Iran tensions and broader developments in the Middle East. Movements in crude oil prices and global market cues are likely to remain important factors for the domestic market in the coming week.”
The Anand Rathi expert said that Brent crude continues to trade above the $ 100-per-barrel mark, raising concerns about inflationary pressures and global risk sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the Nifty has entered an oversold zone following the recent sharp decline, amid concerns about the US Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook. The possibility of another rate increase in the coming quarters remains a key concern for global markets, while the US 10-year Treasury yield, maintaining an upward bias, could continue to influence risk appetite.
Decoding the technical chart pattern of the Nifty 50 index, Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, said, “The Nifty 50 index is likely to retain a Sideways to Bearish bias, with immediate support placed at 22,900–23,000 and resistance at 23,300–23,370. A sustained move above 23,370 could provide room for a recovery towards higher levels, whereas a decisive break below 22,800 may resume the broader selling pressure.”
On the outlook for the Bank Nifty index, Sumeet Bagadia of Choice Broking said, “The expected trading range for the next session is 55,000–56,000 with a Sideways to Bearish bias.”
Indian stock market bottom | Three factors hold key
Experts believe the next round of bear trend may touch the bottom as the US Midterm Election 2026 unfolds, with some triggers, which is good for the emerging markets, including Dalal Street.
They listed out the three factors, which may enable the Indian stock market to bottom out in October 2026:
US Midterm Elections 2026
Pointing towards the fast-approaching US Midterm elections 2026, Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, said, “The US Midterm Elections 2026 date falls on 3 November. So, pressure would be high on President Donald Trump to justify the defence spending, rising inflation, and a new challenge to the US administration — the debt crisis amid soaring US Treasury yields. The debt crisis in the US has crossed $40 trillion in August 2026, which was just half of it a decade ago. Rising US bond yields, especially the US 10-year bond yield, and high interest rates due to the hawkish US Fed, after the US inflation has sustained at higher levels, are some of the economic reasons which voters would ask the Trump administration to justify.”
The PACE 360 expert said that a major justification the Trump administration would face in the US Midterm Elections 2026 is the US-Iran war. The Trump administration owes a justification for entering the war, given that the US is already facing a huge debt crisis.
Buzz for manipulation in the US bond yields
On how the Trump administration would counter these questions, as the US Midterm Election 2026 is just a month away, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “The US administration would first try to manipulate the US Treasury yields, as it would be an easier way to counter these questions related to the US economy. However, it is easier said than done, because manipulation in US Treasuries has already begun, yet they failed to contain the soaring US 10-year bond yields. The US 10-year bond yield gave a yellow flat when it crossed the 4.50% yield, and now it is above 5%, within a month.”
The SEBI-registered expert said that there is a high probability that the US 10-year bond yield may continue the uptrend and come close to or touoch 6% annual yield before the US Midterm Election 2026.
US to follow the Japanese footsteps
What’s next as the US Treasury yield manipulation is not able to contain the soaring US bond yields, Amit Goel of PACE 360 said, “As the US administration’s gimmick to manipulate the US Treasuries is unable to contain the US 10-year bond yield rise, the next step left towards the Trump administration is to follow the Japanese footsteps by fixing the US bond yields. This may happen after the US Midterm Election 2026, but the US 10-year bond yield is expected to top out ahead of the US Midterm Election as investor may not take the risk by holding their positions for long.”
The PACE 360 expert said that profit-booking in the US bonds would weaken the US Dollar (USD), leading to a sharp rise in the global currencies, including the Indian National Rupee (INR).
“As the structural growth story in the Indian equity market is still intact, we are expecting the Indian equity market to bottom out in October, just ahead of the US Midterm Election 2026,” said Amit Goel of PACE 360.
However, Amit Goel of PACE 360 made it clear that the Nifty 50 index may break below 22,800 and test the 22,500 level before forming its bottom.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational and informational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified financial experts before making any investment decisions.
About The Author
