(Bloomberg) — Crude oil flows from the Middle East are almost back to pre-war levels despite continued risks to shipping, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
“The Middle East’s oil export arteries are flowing again,” analysts including Natasha Kaneva said in a Sept. 29 note. That’s “a remarkable recovery for a region still at war,” although it’s been uneven, they said.
Shipments of crude oil have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels, while flows of products such as diesel and gasoline were at 3 million barrels a day, or 58%, according to JPMorgan. The overall figure was 89% of 2025 levels, measured by the 10-day average over the past five days, the analysts said.
The global oil market is zeroed in on the volumes of oil and products coming out of the region as the conflict between the US and Iran enters its eighth month. In addition to shipments going via the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has managed to restore about half the flows on its East-West pipeline after damage earlier this month to the cross-country conduit, which feeds its Red Sea ports.
Flows through Hormuz have almost “returned to late-June highs of nearly 13 million barrels a day, led primarily by Saudi Arabia,” the analysts said. “But higher crossings should not be mistaken for improved safety — rather, they reflect the industry’s increasing ability to operate under sustained risk.”
The waters around Hormuz — which links the Persian Gulf to global markets — have seen attacks on shipping for months as Tehran asserts its control over the waterway. That claim has been rejected by the US, which imposed a blockade of Iranian ports while also assisting transits by other nations’ vessels.
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