Harley-Davidson is gaining momentum after a multiyear slump, according to Citi. Analyst James Hardiman upgraded the motorcycle manufacturer to buy from neutral. His price target of $33, up from $31, implies upside of 34.4% from Friday’s close. Harley-Davidson shares are up nearly 20% in 2026, though they fell in each of the last three years. Since the end of 2022, the stock has fallen 41%, while the S & P 500 has doubled, as sales weakened. But Hardiman thinks there’s a turnaround in the works. HOG 5Y mountain HOG 5-year performance “While we may never simultaneously have complete clarity and a mispriced stock, we believe that now may be a compelling entry point ahead of 3Q earnings/guidance and an intriguing 2027 story,” he said. “Following positive domestic retail growth in both 1H26 and continued strength through July and August, our latest checks suggest September retail could be up double digits. If accurate, Harley would be on pace to significantly outperform current expectations and exit the year with the strongest retail momentum it has seen in years,” Hardiman added. The analyst raised his estimates for the third and fourth quarter, as well as for full year 2027 and 2028. The company is expected to report Q3 2026 results around Oct. 28, according to FactSet. Analysts polled by LSEG expect earnings tumbled more than 80% from the year-earlier period, while revenue slipped around 1%. But “looking forward, the demand strength in 2026 could transition into a multi-year retail growth story,” Hardiman said. Harley shares popped 3% in the premarket following the upgrade. Citi’s call goes against Wall Street consensus. Of the 17 analysts who cover the stock, 11 have a hold or underperform rating, according to LSEG. Another six rate it as a buy or strong buy.
