Indian equities are heading into November after a prolonged phase of weakness, with persistent foreign investor outflows, elevated crude oil prices, rupee depreciation and global uncertainty weighing on market sentiment. The recent correction has also put the spotlight on whether the Nifty 50 can stage a recovery in the final two months of 2026 or if investors should brace for further volatility.
Historical trends, however, offer some reasons for optimism. Data from 2001 to 2025 shows that November and December have been the strongest months for the Nifty 50, delivering average returns of 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The index has ended November in positive territory in 15 of the past 25 years, while December has recorded gains in 17 of those 25 years, according to NSE data analysed by SAMCO Research.
With Diwali falling on 8 November this year, festive demand, improved consumption sentiment and year-end portfolio adjustments could provide additional support to equities. But will seasonal strength be enough to revive the bulls, or will global headwinds continue to cap gains? A look at 25 years of market data and expert views offers clues on what may lie ahead for Dalal Street.
Will history repeat in November and December 2026?
Jahol Prajapati, Equity Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities, said November and December could provide a seasonal boost to Indian equities after several months of persistent weakness.
Historical data since 2001 shows that November and December are among the Nifty’s strongest months, with average returns of 2.5% and 2.6%, respectively. The index has ended these months in positive territory in 60% and 68% of instances, respectively.
Prajapati noted that Diwali falling on 8 November this year could extend festive activity through the month, potentially supporting consumption sentiment, retail investor participation and market liquidity. Year-end portfolio rebalancing, institutional positioning and expectations of improved earnings visibility could also lend support as investors reassess valuations following the recent market correction.
However, he cautioned that the market continues to face several headwinds, including persistent foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows, elevated crude oil prices, rupee depreciation and global uncertainty.
While historical seasonality offers grounds for optimism, Prajapati said a sustained market recovery would depend on an improvement in corporate earnings, stabilisation in global cues and a revival in foreign investor participation. He added that seasonal trends could favour a rebound, but fundamentals and fund flows would need to confirm the recovery.
Seasonality trends for the Index
Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said historical seasonality trends point to a broadly positive outlook for Indian equities in November, although performance has varied across market segments.
Over the past 20 years, the Nifty 50 has closed November in positive territory in 10 instances, delivering an average gain of 4.94%. In the remaining 10 years, the index declined by an average of 3.22%.
Bank Nifty has demonstrated stronger seasonal performance, ending November higher in 14 of the past 20 years, with an average return of 6.45%. Over the six years it declined, the average loss was 4.23%.
The broader market has also historically outperformed during the month. The Nifty Midcap index has posted positive returns in 15 of the past 20 Novembers, with an average gain of 4.57%. In the five negative instances, it recorded an average decline of 5.62%.
Similarly, the Nifty Smallcap index has ended November in positive territory in 14 of the past 20 years, delivering an average gain of 4.68%. However, over the six years it fell, the average decline was steeper, at 8.54%, highlighting the segment’s relatively higher volatility.
At the sectoral level, Private Banks, PSU Banks, Financial Services and IT have historically been among the strongest performers in November. In contrast, Oil & Gas, CPSE, Metals, Auto and Pharma have generally underperformed the broader market during the month, Shah said.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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