- The Pound Sterling regains ground as UK Chancellor Reeves rules out speculation that she is stepping down.
- UK’s new welfare bill is expected to lead to an increase in taxes or spending cuts.
- The US Dollar underperforms as Trump’s tariff deadline expires on July 9.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades broadly stable against its peers on Friday, following commitment from the United Kingdom (UK) Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves to remain in her role till the next elections. The British currency has underperformed its peers this week on speculation of Reeves’ stepping down for failing to stick to her self-imposed fiscal rules.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.39% | 0.34% | -0.01% | -0.76% | -0.34% | -0.20% | -0.65% | |
| EUR | 0.39% | 0.70% | 0.39% | -0.38% | 0.02% | 0.19% | -0.28% | |
| GBP | -0.34% | -0.70% | -0.49% | -1.07% | -0.66% | -0.52% | -0.97% | |
| JPY | 0.01% | -0.39% | 0.49% | -0.76% | -0.28% | -0.15% | -0.60% | |
| CAD | 0.76% | 0.38% | 1.07% | 0.76% | 0.37% | 0.56% | 0.10% | |
| AUD | 0.34% | -0.02% | 0.66% | 0.28% | -0.37% | 0.15% | -0.30% | |
| NZD | 0.20% | -0.19% | 0.52% | 0.15% | -0.56% | -0.15% | -0.45% | |
| CHF | 0.65% | 0.28% | 0.97% | 0.60% | -0.10% | 0.30% | 0.45% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
On Thursday, Reeves confirmed while speaking to reporters that she will remain in office despite fiscal headwinds, and expressed confidence that she will improve fiscal conditions in her term. The same day, a spokesperson also confirmed on behalf of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer that “She [Reeves] is going nowhere”.
The speculation over Reeves’ role as Chancellor stemmed after she was seen in tears at the House of Commons earlier this week, while revealing the new welfare bill. However, Reeves clarified that she was upset due to some personal reasons.
Chancellor Reeves broke her own fiscal rules by raising the standard allowance for Universal Credit (UC) in the new welfare bill. To offset the cost of the same, she would need to cut spending or raise taxes. “Of course, there is a cost to the welfare changes that Parliament voted through this week and that will be reflected in the Budget,” Reeves said, BBC reported.
Additionally, PM Starmer refraining from answering Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s question whether she will continue in her role also fanned speculation of Reeves’ steeping down. This led to a sharp increase in UK gilt yields, which weighed heavily on the Pound Sterling.
Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling ticks higher against US Dollar as tariff deadline approaches
- The Pound Sterling ticks up to near 1.3670 against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, in a holiday mood due to Independence Day in the United States (US). The GBP/USD pair edges higher as the US Dollar underperforms its peers, with the July 9 tariff deadline looming large. The US Dollar Index (DXY) slides below 97.00 at the time of writing in the European session.
- The US Dollar underperforms as US President Donald Trump stated that he will send letters to those nations with whom a trade agreement has not been finalized, outlining tariff rates. So far, Washington has announced trade agreements with the UK and Vietnam, and a framework with China. Trump has also expressed confidence that he will strike a deal with India before the tariff deadline.
- The imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the US on its major trading partners, such as the Eurozone, Japan, Canada and Mexico, will dampen global trade stability.
- Meanwhile, the clearance for imposing Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” after it was narrowly approved by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives has increased US fiscal risks. Market experts believe that his signature bill will increase the national debt by $3–3.4 trillion over the next decade. Such scenario will increase interest obligations for the administration and will be inflationary for the economy.
- Another reason behind US Dollar weakness is slowing private sector hiring. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed on Thursday that strong public sector hiring contributed significantly to robust employment data. Overall, workers added in June were 147K, of which 74K were private employees and others from the government.
- Private sector hiring was almost half of 137K recorded in May and way below if compared to the three-month average of 115K, pointing to hesitancy amid uncertainty surrounding the tariff policy.
- Soft hiring by private employers will likely force Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to consider interest rate cuts sooner.
Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling struggles to reclaim three-year high around 1.3800
The Pound Sterling trades slightly higher, near 1.3675 against the US Dollar on Friday. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) close to 1.3600 continues to act as a major support zone for the GBP/USD pair.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 60, suggesting that the bullish momentum has faded. However, the bullish bias is still intact.
Looking down, the psychological level of 1.3500 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the three-and-a-half-year high around 1.3800 will act as a key barrier.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months’ reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market’s reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
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