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The political future of French far-right leader Marine Le Pen hangs in the balance as a court on Monday is set to rule whether she committed fraud and embezzled EU funds.
Le Pen, a three-time presidential candidate and head of the opposition, risks a maximum sentence of five years in prison and an immediate 5-year ban on holding public office — which could bar her from running to succeed Emmanuel Macron in 2027.
Such a decision would be a political earthquake in France, since Le Pen has twice made it into the presidential run-off and is seen by analysts as a strong contender in the next election.
Judges will decide not only on the ban itself, but also whether it should take effect immediately or only after all appeals are exhausted, which could still allow her to run.
“If I am banned from running with immediate effect,” Le Pen said earlier this month, “it would unquestionably be a deeply anti-democratic decision, since it would deprive the French people of the ability to potentially choose their future president of the republic”.
Le Pen was tried last autumn for allegedly misusing EU funds when she was a member of the European parliament from 2004 to 2017 by having staff hired in Brussels in reality working for her party in France.
Prosecutors have also accused 24 high-ranking cadres and staffers of her Rassemblement National party of similar charges, claiming the RN siphoned off more than €3mn from the EU parliament.
Legal experts have said that prosecutors laid out a strong case against Le Pen that included evidence showing she was aware and approved the way the EU funds were to be used.
All the accused deny wrongdoing.
If Le Pen is convicted, the judges have three options: to bar her from public office immediately, apply the ban after an appeal — or not to ban her at all.
Prosecutors requested the former, arguing that the amounts and length of the alleged fraud meant that the RN must be hit with the severest penalties. “It was a true war machine, orchestrated by the party leadership, to fund the [party] and its growth, in violation of basic rules,” prosecutor Louise Neyton said during a hearing.
Such immediate bans apply by default to local officials who are found guilty, but judges have more leeway when it comes to MPs.
Elias Bourran, a criminal lawyer at the Paris-based firm Beaubourg Avocats, said judges did not have to follow prosecutors’ recommendations and could adapt the penalties based on the person’s profile and risk of repeat offences.
“Judges must be independent and impartial, but they are also human beings with political sensibilities,” said Bourran. “The damage to Le Pen’s political career would be grave.”
During the period the alleged crimes were committed, the RN was a much smaller and poorer party than it is now. It did not receive much funding from the French public financing system, which allocates funds based on the number of elected offices held.
French banks also refused to finance RN campaigns, prompting Le Pen to take a loan from Hungary to finance her 2022 campaign that she repaid soon after the race. She also borrowed from a Russia bank in 2014 and paid it back six months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The RN is no longer plagued by such financing concerns because its strong performance in last year’s snap election gave it 123 seats in the assembly, making it the single-largest opposition party. It is entitled to about €14mn in public financing over the legislative term, according to media estimates, more than double what it had in the previous term.
The decision from the Paris criminal court is expected at 10am local time on Monday. Le Pen has said she would appeal if she was convicted.
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