Top three stocks to buy today—recommended by Ankush Bajaj for 22 July

Top 3 stocks recommended by Ankush Bajaj for 22 July:

Buy: Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd — Current Price: ₹885.80

• Why it’s recommended:Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd is exhibiting strong bullish momentum, supported by key technical indicators and a breakout from a consolidation pattern. TheRelative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at73 on the daily chart, which signals robust buying strength just below the overbought threshold. TheMACD stands at+30, indicating strong upward momentum, while theADX is at45, confirming a well-established trend with solid directional movement.

Adding to the bullish case, the stock hasbroken out of a triangle pattern on lower timeframes, projecting an upside target of ₹940+. This technical breakout, combined with strong momentum indicators, suggests continuation of the current rally.

• Key metrics: Breakout zone: Triangle breakout on lower timeframes with sustained volume
• Pattern: Triangle breakout with bullish momentum follow-through
• RSI: Strong at 73, indicating steady buying pressure
• MACD: Positive at +30, reinforcing the upward move
• ADX: 45, showing trend strength and conviction
• Technical analysis:The stock is holding above near-term support and has confirmed its breakout with increasing volumes and bullish follow-through. With the trend backed by momentum and pattern confirmation, the near-term target lies at ₹940.
• Risk factors:A close below ₹862 would negate the bullish setup and may lead to short-term weakness. Traders should watch for sudden reversals near the resistance zone and maintain a disciplined stop-loss strategy.
• Buy at: ₹885.80
• Target price: ₹940
• Stop loss: ₹862.00

Buy: Ambuja Cements Ltd — Current Price: ₹613.25

• Why it’s recommended:Ambuja Cements Ltd has confirmed arectangle breakout on the daily chart, indicating a resumption of bullish momentum after a period of consolidation. TheMACD is trending positive at+11.28, while theRSI stands at64, reflecting healthy bullish momentum without being overextended.

This technical breakout aligns with strengthening momentum indicators, suggesting that the stock is gearing up for a fresh leg of upside. The structure looks poised for continuation, especially if broader sentiment remains stable.

• Key metrics: Breakout zone: Rectangle breakout on daily chart
• Pattern: Post-consolidation breakout with upward strength
• RSI: Bullish at 64, supporting uptrend
• MACD: Positive at +11.28, confirming strength
• ADX: Not specified but implied momentum is strong
• Technical analysis:Ambuja is currently sustaining above key breakout levels, suggesting strong follow-through. The stock has a clear upside path towards the ₹636 level in the near term, provided the momentum sustains.
• Risk factors: A close below ₹603.60 would invalidate the bullish setup. Traders should remain cautious if volume fades or the stock faces selling pressure at higher levels.
• Buy at: ₹613.25
• Target price: ₹636
• Stop loss: ₹603.60

Buy: Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd — Current Price: ₹3,246.70

• Why it’s recommended: Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd has staged a bullish flag breakout on the daily chart, typically a continuation pattern that signals trend strength. Th eRSI is holding a t63, reflecting steady buying interest, while the MACD stands at +28, suggesting that bullish momentum is firmly in place.

This breakout from a flag formation confirms the resumption of the prior uptrend. With momentum and price action aligned, the stock appears well-positioned for further upside.

• Key metrics: Breakout zone: Flag breakout on daily timeframe
• Pattern: Bullish flag continuation
• RSI: Positive at 63, confirming trend strength
• MACD: Bullish at +28
• ADX: 15 also implied strength due to breakout
• Technical analysis:M&M is maintaining price levels above breakout resistance and has established a bullish structure. The upside target is set at ₹3,320, with potential for even higher levels if broader market conditions support the move.
• Risk factors: A close below ₹3,208 would weaken the bullish outlook. Traders should closely monitor price action near resistance and stay disciplined with stop-loss management.
• Buy at: ₹3,246.70
• Target price: ₹3,320
• Stop loss: ₹3,208.00

Market Wrap

On Monday, 21 July 2025, Nifty 50 rose by 122.3 points or 0.49%, closing at 25,090.70, while the BSE Sensex gained 442.61 points or 0.54% to settle at 82,200.34. The Bank Nifty also closed higher, advancing 578.40 points or 1.03% to finish at 56,994.00, as financial stocks attracted strong buying interest throughout the session.

Sectorally, the market exhibited a mixed but encouraging tone. The oil and gas sector declined 1.09%, PSU banks dipped 0.62%, and FMCG slipped 0.50% — largely due to profit booking. However, rotational flows found their way into stronger themes, with the finance sector climbing 1.62%, the banking index rising 1.19%, and the services sector advancing 1.08%, offering support to the broader market.

Nifty Technical Analysis Daily & Hourly

The Nifty ended Monday’s session on a positive note, closing at 25,090.70, up 122.30 points or 0.49 percent, staging a strong recovery after opening on a flat-to-negative note. The index posted a one-sided uptrend throughout the session and managed to close near the day’s high, reclaiming the key 25,000 psychological mark, which now acts as an immediate support zone.

From a technical standpoint, Nifty is currently trading above its 40-day exponential moving average (25041) but still below the 20-day simple moving average, which now stands at 25,324. This configuration indicates that while some short-term relief has come in, the upside may remain limited unless the index decisively crosses and sustains above the 20-DMA. On the hourly chart, the index is trading marginally above its 20-hour SMA (25114) and 40-hour EMA (25054), showing initial signs of intraday recovery but also highlighting a cluster of near-term resistances that need to be cleared to confirm a sustained breakout.

Momentum indicators are signaling a cautiously optimistic outlook. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has improved slightly to 47, indicating stabilization in trend, while the hourly RSI is at 51, reflecting improved intraday strength. However, the daily MACD has slipped to +26, showing weakening momentum compared to previous sessions, and the hourly MACD remains in negative territory at –27, which suggests that short-term momentum is still not fully aligned with the bullish reversal.

The options data paints a mixed picture. Total Call open interest stands at 13.67 crore, while Put open interest is at 11.76 crore, resulting in a net difference of –1.91 crore, which still reflects a bearish bias in positioning. The highest Call OI lies at the 26,000 strike, with maximum additions at the 25,600 level, indicating a strong overhead resistance zone. On the Put side, the highest open interest stands at 25,000, while the maximum additions came at the 25,100 strike, suggesting traders are placing bets that the 25,000 mark will hold as strong support. Importantly, the intraday changes in open interest show that Call OI rose by only 45.61 lakh, while Put OI saw a significant increase of 3.99 crore, resulting in a net change of +3.54 crore — a shift that indicates bullish sentiment building at current levels.

While the overall OI structure remains technically bearish, the sharp increase in Put writing and reduced call additions reflect a bullish shift in short-term expectations. India VIX data was not significantly updated in this session, but the recent reading of 11.39 suggests that volatility remains subdued, keeping risk appetite in check and favoring directional trades.

In summary, after multiple failed attempts, Nifty has managed to reclaim the 25,000 level, supported by improved intraday momentum and fresh Put writing in the derivatives segment. The immediate hurdle lies at the 25,150–25,324 zone, beyond which a further move toward 25,500–25,600 could unfold. On the downside, the 25,000–24,950 band will now act as a crucial support range. A decisive break below this level could revive selling pressure and bring the 24,700 level back into focus.

Until the index crosses above 25,324, the broader structure remains neutral with a slight positive bias. Traders are advised to remain cautiously optimistic, avoiding aggressive longs until a clean breakout above resistance is confirmed.

Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441.

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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.