Barclays believes that even as the GLP-1 race heats up, Eli Lilly still has a leg up over competitors. The bank initiated the biopharmaceutical stock with an overweight rating and $1,350 price target, implying an upside 32% from here. Analyst Emily Field pointed to the growing business of obesity-treating GLP-1 drugs. “Unlike the prior go-to treatments for obesity (i.e. diet and exercise) we do not view the medical treatment of obesity as a fad, and believe GLP-1(+)s represent a durable structural shift, with Eli Lilly likely to remain the market leader,” she wrote. LLY 1Y mountain LLY 1Y chart Field wrote that the obesity market is sure to see new competition enter the space, with potential rivals to Eli Lilly including AstraZeneca, Amgen and Roche. However, she believes that Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide is “the best product available today, both from a safety and efficacy perspective and amongst competitors, as the market becomes segmented, LLY has likely near-best, if not best-in-class, options among emerging combinations and modalities.” Going forward, Field expects investor focus to remain on the launch trajectory of Eli Lilly’s orforglipron, a once-daily oral GLP-1 medication that is expected to be approved in the second quarter of 2026. She added that she’s also bullish about the potential from injectables both with a higher efficacy potential that tirzepatide, combined with a milder toxicity profile. Field also applauded Eli Lilly’s best-in-class consumer platform. “Another factor that we think will make it tough for a new entrant to put a dent into LLY’s share in this space is the company’s patient-centric focus and direct-to-consumer platform in Lilly Direct,” she wrote. “Though we’ve now seen a major price reset following last year’s announcements with both Novo and Lilly and the Trump Administration and Medicare coverage is likely to open up a new volume channel later this year, we expect this will be a market where consumers seek treatment increasingly directly; LLY has the best platform in this space.” Field added that Eli Lilly’s premium valuation is justified due to its significant leadership and the depth of pipeline assets in key therapeutic areas. “All this before we’ve even mentioned LLY’s other therapeutic [areas] of Immunology, Neuroscience and Oncology…sometimes it’s best to keep it simple and stick with a category leader, so whilst valuation is at a significant premium to the broader space, we think with LLY it’s worth it,” she wrote. Shares of Eli Lilly have popped 17% over the past 12 months but have slipped 5% this year.
