Gold price today: Gold and silver rates declined significantly on the MCX in morning deals on Tuesday, 30 June, pressured by the dollar’s rise and weak global cues amid speculation of US Fed rate hikes this year.
MCX gold August futures were 1.28% down at ₹1,40,574 per 10 grams, while MCX silver September contracts were 1.04% down at ₹2,20,322 per kg around 9:10 am.
The sharp drop in gold and silver prices can be attributed to the dollar’s rise amid speculation that the US Federal Reserve may raise rates by 3 times this year due to sticky inflation.
The dollar index is above 101, set for a second monthly gain, making gold more expensive for buyers in overseas currencies.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates traders are pricing in three rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve this year.
The June ADP employment and nonfarm payroll data, due this week, will offer further clues about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.
While gold is considered a hedge against inflation, it tends to come under pressure in a high-interest-rate environment because it is a non-yielding asset.
As per news agency Reuters, gold prices appear set for their biggest monthly decline since October 2008. Spot gold prices, currently at $3,956.92 per ounce, have dropped nearly 13% so far in June and are on course for their fourth straight monthly fall.
Moreover, the yellow metal is on track for its first quarterly decline since 2024 and the largest since the June quarter of 2013, Reuters reported.
“International gold prices are on track for a fourth consecutive monthly decline as persistent inflation concerns and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates continued to weigh on sentiment,” Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services, noted.
“Markets also remain concerned that higher energy costs and AI-driven demand for semiconductor chips could keep inflation elevated for longer, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts,” Singh said.
On the geopolitical front, uncertainty continues over US-Iran talks in Qatar. As per reports, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, has said that there are no meetings scheduled between the US and Iran on Tuesday or in the coming days.
On the other hand, other reports suggested that US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is reportedly travelling to Doha, Qatar, as diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran continues.
“Although the U.S.-Iran peace deal helped cool oil prices, renewed geopolitical tensions and expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates continue to limit demand for non-yielding assets like gold,” Singh said.
What should investors do?
Experts say investors should avoid aggressive betting on gold and silver at this juncture and focus on key support and resistance levels for short-term trading.
“We suggest traders stay away from taking fresh positions ahead of the Fed Chairman’s speech, but long-term investors could add in SIP mode in the falling markets,” said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.
According to Jain, gold has support at $3,994 and $3,955, while resistance is at $4,074 and $4,110 per troy ounce, and silver has support at $57 and $55.40, while resistance is at $60 and $61.60 per troy ounce in today’s session.
MCX gold has support at ₹1,41,100 and ₹1,40,000, and resistance is at ₹1,43,600 and ₹1,44,800, while silver has support at ₹2,16,600 and ₹2,14,000 and resistance at ₹2,22,400 and ₹2,25,000, said Jain.
Singh believes a decisive break below ₹1,40,500 could accelerate the decline towards the next major support near ₹1,36,000. On the upside, ₹1,45,700 to ₹1,46,000 has now become an immediate resistance zone, and any recovery towards this area is likely to attract fresh selling unless prices manage to close above it.
Overall, the bias remains sell on rise, said Singh.
Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, expects further downside in both precious metals.
“MCX gold August could fall to ₹1,36,000 to ₹1,37,000 in July before it witnesses a short covering in August. Likewise, MCX silver for September is likely to drop to ₹2,00,000 before it bounces. Comex gold has a floor around $3,800 and $3,750 per troy ounce, and silver may find support near $55 to $53 per troy ounce,” said Trivedi.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
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