India’s largest private sector lender, HDFC Bank, is set to announce its Q3 results today, Saturday, January 17. According to brokerages and analysts, the Q3 results for FY26 of the private lender are likely to remain flat, driven by steady core operating performance supported by moderate loan growth and broadly stable net interest margins.
HDFC Bank is expected to face profitability headwinds on a sequential basis, while NII may experience modest quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth in the October-December quarter, according to brokerage estimates.
On the flipside, the lender’s loan growth is expected to remain healthy, while the bank’s NIM is likely to slip year-on-year (YoY) and flat QoQ. The Street’s focus will remain on management’s commentary around deposit mobilisation and margin trajectory, which are expected to drive the bank’s performance in the coming quarters.
Profit after tax
According to Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, profit growth is expected to remain restrained, as stable core earnings may be partly offset by subdued non-interest income and limited treasury gains during the quarter.
Meanwhile, brokerage firm Systematix expects the bank to report 11.2% YoY growth in net profit in the December quarter of FY26. On the other hand, Elara Capital anticipates HDFC Bank‘s net profit to grow 6.6% YoY in Q3 FY26.
NII and Asset quality
Seema Srivastava of SMC Global Securities believes that net interest income (NII) is likely to record modest year-on-year growth, aided by expansion in the advances book and repricing benefits, even as competitive pressures on deposits and elevated funding costs limit margin expansion.
She further anticipates that asset quality is expected to remain healthy, with credit costs and slippages staying under control and no major deterioration anticipated across loan segments.
At the consolidated level, Systematix analysts forecast HDFC Bank’s NII to rise about 6.4% YoY in Q3 FY26, supported by healthier loan growth and a gradual moderation in funding costs. NII is estimated at ₹32,606.8 crore, reflecting a 3.3% QoQ increase.
On the other hand, Elara Capital anticipates the asset quality of the bank to see another steady print in Q3 FY26.
“ Asset quality to see another steady print, reflected in curtailed slippages. Q3 should see slightly higher slippages, it being a KCC quarter,” it said.
Loan growth and slippages
Elara expects a better momentum in loan growth for the December quarter. “ he key factor to watch for will be deposit traction and the composition in the form of ‘retail and others’. We expect CD ratio to rise within 98-100%. Further commentary on the direction of CD ratios will need to be watched,” it added.
Meanwhile, slippages are expected to increase marginally on sequential basis. However, provisions are also expected to be lower sequentially due to one-off higher provision in 2QFY26, according to Systematix.
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