Oracle’s year-to-date slump may be excessive and the stock should more than double from here, according to Jefferies. Ahead of Oracle’s fiscal third-quarter earnings release on Tuesday, the bank stood by its buy rating on the tech old guard. And while analyst Brent Thill lowered his price target to $320 from $400, that still implies upside of 107% from Thursday’s close. Shares of Oracle have dipped 21% this year, swept up in a broader sell-off targeting the technology industry upon fears of artificial intelligence disruption. ORCL YTD mountain ORCL YTD chart “We see an attractive setup driven by a rare reacceleration growth story, a highly profitable core software business, and lower long‑term AI erosion risk, with upside to ~$16 EPS by FY29E (20x = $320 stock),” Thill said. Thill wrote he sees asymmetric risk-reward ahead, although his price target lowering is due to “more prudent assumptions around [OpenAI] and margins.” “We believe the market may be overlooking ORCL’s upside potential and growth catalysts even ex-[OpenAI]. Our partner survey shows rising AI optimism, with AI-driven tailwinds contributing more to pipeline and CY26 expectations than F3Q growth,” he wrote. “For F3Q, we see key bogeys at 86% OCI growth, 42% op margin, and ~ $18B in net RPO adds.” Thill predicts that Oracle Cloud Infrastructure’s growth meaningfully accelerated last month. Backlog, he wrote, remains an important piece of the company’s growth acceleration narrative because it allows Oracle to continue diversifying away from the backlog concentration risk associated with OpenAI.
