(WO) – Rystad Energy analysts say Venezuela has a technical route to rebuild production toward 3 million bpd, but the milestone would only be achievable around 2040 and would require approximately $183 billion in cumulative oil and gas investment beginning in 2026. In a LinkedIn post, the research group said the spending level is roughly comparable to one year of current North America land CAPEX.
Image: Petroleum Economist and World Oil
Near-term restoration potential is more modest. Rystad estimates that only 300,000 to 350,000 bpd of output can be returned quickly with limited expenditure, and growth beyond 1.4 MMbpd would depend on sustained capital commitments across the value chain. Analysts said about $53 billion would be needed over the next 15 years simply to keep production flat at around 1.1 MMbpd.
The analysis highlights infrastructure as a primary constraint. Reaching 3 MMbpd by 2040 would require heavy early investment in pipelines, upgraders and processing equipment, with at least $30 billion to $35 billion of international capital committed in the first stage to make broader expansion plausible. Service purchases associated with that program could total about $156 billion over the period.
Rystad said the outlook hinges on governance reforms and investor confidence more than geology. Years of neglect have left Venezuela’s heavy-crude system operating well below capacity, and developers would need predictable fiscal and legal frameworks to contract long programs with global service companies. The group said a gradual rather than rapid recovery remains the most likely scenario.
Map created in collaboration with Petroleum Economist and Global Energy Infrastructure. For an overview of this project and other related infrastructure developments, visit . Copyright World Oil 2026. All rights reserved.
About The Author
