(Bloomberg) — Delivery, payments, and software stocks slid sharply Monday after Citrini Research published a report laying out the potential risks that artificial intelligence could pose to various segments of the global economy.
DoorDash Inc., American Express Co., KKR & Co Inc. and Blackstone Inc all slumped more than 8%. Shares of other companies name-checked in the article, including Uber Technologies Inc., Mastercard Inc., Visa Inc., Capital One Financial Corp. and Apollo Global Management Inc. were all lower by at least 3%.
“The sole intent of this piece is modeling a scenario that’s been relatively underexplored,” a preface to the article, which was published Sunday, said. “Hopefully, reading this leaves you more prepared for potential left tail risks as AI makes the economy increasingly weird.”
Citrini Research, founded by James van Geelen, presented a hypothetical scenario set in June 2028 where AI’s disruption has caused mass unemployment for white collar workers, declining consumer spending, software-backed loan defaults and economic contraction. Still, the report notes clearly — “What follows is a scenario, not a prediction.”
Among the various outcomes discussed in this “thought exercise,” Citrini lays out a situation where the dominance of delivery apps like DoorDash and Uber Eats are displaced by “vibe-coded” alternatives.
“We definitely believe agentic commerce will be transformative to the industry,” DoorDash co-founder Andy Fang said in an X post in response to Citrini. “The ground is shifting underneath our feet, and the industry is going to need to adapt to it.”
The report goes on to describe a future scenario where AI agents seek to save users’ money by eliminating transaction fees charged by payment processing firms like Mastercard and Visa.
“We are certain some of these scenarios won’t materialize,” the report goes on to say. “As investors, we still have time to assess how much of our portfolios are built upon assumptions that won’t survive the decade.”
The grim illustration added even more anxiety into a stock market that has been jolted repeatedly in recent weeks by fears of AI disruption and geopolitical upheaval.
“The report raises real concerns about disruption, even if things don’t end up as dire as the worst-case scenario,” said Thomas George, a portfolio manager at Grizzle Investment Management. “Certainly you don’t feel great after reading it, and I’m sure it leaves anyone holding these stocks with less conviction,” he said.
Sectors from software, to wealth management and logistics have all been swept up in selloffs in recent weeks as investors nervous about the potential disruptions from new AI tools have slipped into a “shoot first, ask questions later” mode.
While software companies have been among the hardest hit, insurance brokers, private credit firms, cybersecurity and even real estate services stocks have all been caught up in the so called “AI scare trade.”
Yet, analysts, strategists and investors have also warned that many of these reactions are exaggerated and are likely overestimating any AI-related risks at this point.
“It is a remarkable reaction,” said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at Jonestrading. “I have seen this market exhibit incredible resilience in the face of actual negative news. Now a literal work of fiction sends it into a tailspin.”
(Updates with additional context, details, comments throughout.)
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