Stock market crash: After the outbreak of the US-Iran war, the global markets, including the Indian stock market, have been continuously falling for the last three sessions, as the tension in the Middle East has already escalated on Friday morning, when the US-Iran talks in Geneva failed to deliver any concrete outcome on Iran’s nuclear disarmament. In the last three sessions, the key Dalal Street benchmark, the Nifty 50 index, has fallen from 25,496 to 24,366, recording a fall of over 1,100 points in three successive sessions from Friday to Wednesday. On Tuesday, the Indian stock market was closed for Holi 2026.
According to stock market experts, the Indian stock market is falling due to weak global cues amid the escalation of the US-Iran war. They said the tension around the Strait of Hormuz, which transits around 20% of the global crude oil supply, and Iran’s attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil major Aramco, the world’s top oil supplier, are also affecting global equity markets, including Dalal Street.
Experts believe there can be more pain as the US President Donald Trump has said that the US has a plan for the Iran war, initially projected for ‘four to five weeks’. However, the tension escalated when he added that the US military may remain deployed for far longer than that. If this happens, the 50-stock index may soon decisively break below 24,000 and head towards the next crucial support at 22,500.
US-Iran war: Soaring crude oil prices
Pointing towards the soaring crude oil prices, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said, “Indian equity markets opened with sharp losses, underscoring a decisive risk-off shift as the deepening conflict in the Middle East drove crude oil prices higher and reignited concerns over India’s import bill and inflation trajectory. The surge in energy costs has amplified macro anxieties, prompting investors to pare exposure across risk assets.”
The Enrich Money expert said that selling pressure was broad-based, with most sectoral indices—barring IT—trading sharply lower, reflecting a wave of defensive repositioning rather than isolated profit-taking. Elevated volatility, persistent trade uncertainties, and intensifying geopolitical risks continue to weigh on sentiment. Unless there is visible de-escalation in the Middle East or supportive macro developments, markets are likely to remain volatile in the near term, with participants favouring capital preservation over aggressive positioning.
Ponmudi R said that successive gap-down openings signal sustained selling pressure and fragile near-term sentiment. Immediate support is placed around 24,200, and a decisive break below this level could accelerate the decline toward the 24,000 psychological mark. On the upside, the 24,500–24,600 zone, corresponding to the gap region, is expected to act as the first layer of resistance.
Outlook for the Nifty 50 today
Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 index, the Enrich money expert said, “Momentum indicators remain deeply negative, with RSI hovering near 30, indicating oversold conditions but without any confirmed reversal signal yet. Meanwhile, MACD continues to reflect strong bearish momentum. The overall structure indicates elevated downside risk in the near term, and sentiment may remain pressured unless the index manages a meaningful recovery and sustains above key resistance levels on a closing basis.”
On why the Nifty 50 outlook is negative despite being in the oversold zone, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “The outlook for the markets is still bearish due to the escalation in the US-Iran war. Initially, the market expected the US-Iran war to end in 3 to 4 days. However, after the US President Donald Trump said that he has plans for the Iran war, initially projecting for four to five weeks, and the US military is fully equipped to go far longer than that. This triggered speculation for a longer period of the US-Iran war, which fueled crude oil prices and the panic selling in the global equity markets.”
Nifty 50 may drop further
Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, said the Nifty 50 index has broken below the 24,600 support level, and the 50-stock index has its next crucial support at 24,000. If the key benchmark index falls below this support, it would likely test the next major support at 22,100-22,000. He said the Nifty 50 index would reach these levels after some dead-cat bounces.
However, the PACE 360 expert said the Nifty 50 index may continue to fall further even if the US-Iran war ends. He said the US economy is slowing. If the US administration fails to find a solution to this economic challenge, the entire global markets, including Dalal Street, will see more downside, with some dead-cat bounce.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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