$180 million Van Gogh tests the art market and collector confidence

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The art auctions in New York next week could top $2 billion, as a treasure trove of masterpieces comes to the market for the first time in decades.

Total sales at Sotheby’s, Christie’s and Phillips are expected to be around $2.4 billion, which would equal last year’s total, according to ArtTactic. Sotheby’s alone is expected to pull in over $1.1 billion, with a single collection from The Blaquier-Arrieta Collection estimated at $450 million.

The collection includes the two big headliners of the week: Vincent van Gogh’s landscape “Châtaigniers en fleurs,” (Chestnut Trees in Flower) estimated at $180 million and Paul Cézanne’s “Arlequin,” estimated at $120 million. Neither has been seen in public for a half a century.

Sotheby’s CEO Charles Stewart said demand is strong in the art market, especially for the highest quality blue-chip works, as rising stocks markets and private wealth boost the confidence of collectors.

“There’s been enormous wealth creation and a lot of confidence in markets,” Stewart said. “It’s a global phenomenon. We’re seeing recovery and greater interest across Asia and something really exciting happening from the Middle East across to Singapore and Europe and the U.S.”

Christie’s star of the week is Wassily Kandinsky’s “Betonte Ecken,” estimated at $60 million to $80 million. Christie’s CEO Bonnie Brennan describes the market is “confident but discerning, rewarding truly exceptional works.” She said recent gyrations in the stock market and fears of an AI bubble aren’t likely to deter serious collectors.

“At the very highest end of our market, collectors tend to take a much longer-term view,” Brennan said. “They understand that the opportunity to acquire a masterpiece may come only once in a generation, and that can be far more important than what the stock market has done in any particular week. In uncertain moments, the very best can actually become even more compelling.”

The art market has continued to rebound this year after declines in 2023 and 2024, with auction sales in the first half up 70% over last year, to $6.8 billion, according to Bank of America.

Drew Watson, head of art services at Bank of America, said blue-chip art is outperforming, with Impressionist & Modern sales up 133% in the first half.

“Our outlook for the art market this November is cautiously optimistic,” Watson said. “Improving liquidity, combined with an unusually strong concentration of fresh-to-market private collections, creates a favorable backdrop for the marquee sales.”