The Indian Rupee (INR) opens sharply higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday. The USD/INR pair tumbles to near 95.25 as remarks from United States (US) President Donald Trump that he called off planned strikes on Iran and that both nations are close to finalizing the permanent peace deal have subsided fears of a prolonged Middle East war, resulting in a further decline in oil prices.
In the opening trade, the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on June 18 bounces back after a weak opening, but is still 1.62% to near 8,207 from Thursday’s closing price.
The appeal of currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs, improves when oil prices come under pressure.
Trump says Iran’s top leadership agrees to MoU
On Thursday, US President Trump said in an event at the Oval Office that he has canceled planned military strikes on Iran, as negotiators from both sides are on “final elements of the deal”. Trump added, “Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved.” He further added that both parties will be signing the deal soon, and “Time and place of signing to be announced shortly.”
Meanwhile, Tehran has clarified that it has not yet agreed to any document for a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the US.
The announcement of canceling planned strikes on Iran resulted in a broad risk rally and a significant decline in oil prices and the US Dollar.
Considering broader risk-on sentiment, Indian stock markets have opened on a strong note. Nifty 50 rises almost 250 points to near 23,400, and Sensex 30 jumps almost 1.4% to near 74,800.
FIIs keep paring stake in Indian stock market
So far in June, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have remained net sellers on all trading days of June, offloading their stake worth Rs. 64,641.43 crore. Overseas investors have been paring their stake in the Indian stock market due to uncertainty over India Inc.’s earnings projections in the wake of Middle East conflicts.
India’s Fiscal Deficit to widen to 4.8% of GDP this year
According to a report from Bloomberg, India is preparing for a wider-than-expected budget deficit this year, as the war in Iran drives up energy subsidy costs and adds pressure on government finances. However, it has not been confirmed by Indian authorities.
Authorities are willing to let the deficit widen by as much as 0.5% to 4.8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared with the 4.3% goal set in February.
India’s CPI data awaited
Later in the day, investors will pay close attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will be published at 04:00 PM IST (10:30 GMT). India’s CPI data is expected to arrive at an annualized pace of 4%, higher than 3.48% in April.
The inflation data will influence market expectations for the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy outlook.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR reflects a sideways trend
USD/INR trades lower at around 95.25 in the opening trade on Friday. The Symmetrical Triangle formation, along with spot’s stickiness to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 95.43, reflects that the overall trend has become sideways. The recent pullback has dragged the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) toward a neutral 49.8 area, hinting at fading upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions, which keeps the focus on overhead supply rather than a decisive bullish reversal.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the 20-day EMA near 95.43, with a stronger barrier emerging at the prior trend-line break zone close to 95.97, where a daily close above would be needed to ease the current pressure and reopen the path toward the all-time high around 97.10. On the downside, immediate support is defined by the rising structural floor from the upward trend line near 94.79, where a break would likely signal a deeper corrective phase toward the May 7 low at 94.03.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
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