Anthropic IPO: Valuation expert Aswath Damodaran has valued Anthropic, the company behind the Claude artificial intelligence models, at $1.475 trillion, placing his estimate below the lower end of the widely discussed $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range for its anticipated initial public offering (IPO).
Damodaran’s valuation highlights the uncertainty surrounding the AI company’s future, with its worth depending on revenue growth, profitability, computing capacity and its ability to maintain a premium position in the market.
In his latest blog, Damodaran warned that the company’s valuation could change significantly once its shares begin trading. “Given AI’s presence in the economy and markets, I can guarantee you that it will be a roller coaster.”
Damodaran’s Anthropic valuation: From -$373 billion to $4.04 trillion
With no directly comparable listed AI company to serve as a benchmark, Damodaran’s valuation rests on the potential size of the AI market and the share Anthropic can capture.
“I believe that AI will have the power to disrupt some industries, and that its most powerful (and highest priced) models will displace white collar (and highly paid) employees, yielding an end market size of $5 trillion or greater for its products. In my view, and that is based on a very early reading of the AI business today, Anthropic is aiming for the premium portion of the market and looks like a leader in that portion of the market,” Damodaran wrote.
He believes Anthropic’s revenue could approach $1 trillion within a decade. For his valuation, he assumed revenue of $1 trillion by 2036, a target operating margin of 27.5% after adjusting for regulatory drag, reinvestment generating $3 in revenue for every dollar of capital invested, and a cost of capital of 9.74%.
Damodaran’s three scenarios demonstrate how sharply the company’s valuation could vary depending on these assumptions.
In his base scenario, Anthropic’s equity value stands at $1.475 trillion. In the worst-case scenario, revenue reaches just $200 billion by 2036, margins converge towards mass-market levels and computing remains scarce and expensive. These conditions, alongside other headwinds, result in a negative equity value of $373 billion. Under this scenario, the company would not survive.
In the best-case scenario, revenue reaches $1.5 trillion by 2036, operating margins rise to 40%, computing becomes cheaper, the sales-to-capital ratio reaches four, and the cost of capital falls to 7.79%. With no regulatory drag on margins, Damodaran estimates Anthropic’s equity value at $4.04 trillion.
The wide valuation range underscores how much Anthropic’s future depends on its ability to convert rapid AI adoption into sustainable revenue and profits while managing the cost of computing infrastructure.
Anthropic IPO: Damodaran flags revenue slowdown and rising compute commitments
According to Anthropic’s recent prospectus filing, revenue in the first two quarters of 2026 was about 14 times the level recorded in the corresponding period last year. However, growth slowed in the third quarter of 2026 as OpenAI gained market share, computing capacity constrained expansion and some enterprises shifted to cheaper open-source models.
Damodaran also highlighted the scale of Anthropic’s future computing commitments. Its financial statements do not currently reflect substantial investments in computing through capital expenditure or debt, but the company has disclosed commitments running into hundreds of billions of dollars in future years.
“Before you accuse Anthropic of hiding the truth (or worse), the company is open about its future compute power commitments, reporting hundreds of billions in compute commitments in future years. The good news is that Anthropic is now catching up with OpenAI, which had the lead on compute power, but the bad news is that this catching up has not been cheap, in terms of cost commitments in future years,” Damodaran said.
The valuation expert also questioned whether enterprise customers would remain tied to Claude once they integrated the models into their operations. That assumption remains untested, while the company’s extensive computing purchase and lease commitments expose it to financing risks. Damodaran noted that Anthropic has a BB+ bond rating.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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