Brent crude is positioned for a significant bullish shift as fundamental catalysts and technical indicators align.
On the fundamental front, geopolitical supply disruption risks remain heavily underpriced by global markets; ongoing conflicts involving Iran, potential chokepoint risks near the Strait of Hormuz, and escalating Houthi attacks in the Red Sea pose severe threats to physical supply routes.
Compounding this supply crisis is the growing threat of a potential U.S. ground operation targeting strategic Iranian energy infrastructure, such as Kharg Island. Any ground invasion or attempt to forcibly seize export hubs would transform localized supply friction into a major global deficit, paralyzing Middle Eastern exports and driving an unprecedented risk premium.
Markets will inevitably wake up soon and correctly price in these persistent geopolitical threats, driving a sharp risk-premium repricing.
On the technical side, the weekly chart paints an equally decisive bullish picture.
A bullish crossover in the oversold area of the Stochastic oscillator, and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) moving towards breaking the zero line are actively validating buyers’ control.
These developments pave the way for a strong continuation move aimed directly at filling the weekly price gap standing at $103.5.
Furthermore, Brent is about to close above the moving average of the Bollinger Bands at 95, confirming an upward structural shift paving the way to the upper band around the level of 120.
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