S&P 500 ran on Hormuz open, Iran giving up enriched uranium and similar fancy headlines that though got dialed back after the closing bell. Bullish talk as a prelude to weekend jawboning? We better look critically at who‘s in control of Hormuz traffic actually, and why the political leadership over there was criticized for not exercising the respective market moving power in calling things out – as in framing for non-compliance with non-existent commitments. Was it done in the interests of Lebanon ceasefire, and how are things actually looking over there?
That makes for quite some weekend risk to the downside – note though that throughout the war, USD hasn‘t risen with the same kind of safe haven vigor as during preceding safe haven demand episodes, and sold off as stocks rebounded. As I wrote Friday, „No crash – just stocks went too far, too fast, and digesting the gains would be healthy, but those earnings, earnings, they’re still great and driving medium-term stocks higher.“ – we‘re now facing stair-stepping possibly leading lower for a little while.
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