The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday at 13:30 GMT. The report is expected to show that prices remained broadly stable in the last month of 2025. As always, it’s a key read on inflation and could stir some short-term moves in the US Dollar (USD).
That said, it’s unlikely to shift the bigger picture for the Federal Reserve (Fed) just yet. With policymakers still focused primarily on the health of the domestic labour market, the data would probably need to deliver a real surprise to trigger any rethink on monetary policy.
What to expect in the next CPI data report?
Inflation itself isn’t expected to spring many surprises. Headline CPI is seen rising 2.7% YoY in December, unchanged from the previous month. Strip out the more volatile food and energy components, and the picture is much the same: core inflation is forecast to edge up slightly to 2.7% from 2.6%, still uncomfortably above the Fed’s target.
On a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI are expected to come in at a fairly steady 0.3%, reinforcing the idea of inflation that’s easing only slowly rather than rolling over.
That also helps explain why December’s rate cut was never a slam dunk. The Minutes released on December 30 show a deeply split Committee, with several officials saying the call was finely balanced and that leaving rates unchanged was a very real alternative.
Previewing the report, analysts at TD Securities noted, “Following the impact from the government shutdown, we now anticipate the core segment to peak at 3% in Q2. We remain of the view that gradual disinflation will be the story in H2 2026. We expect core CPI inflation to end the year at 2.6%.”
How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect EUR/USD?
Investors are still chewing over a mixed set of signals from December’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), but that debate is starting to take a back seat. Fresh threats to the Fed’s independence have resurfaced, and they risk overshadowing the significance of Tuesday’s inflation data altogether.
Given that the Fed is still keeping a close eye on the labour market, December’s CPI numbers are unlikely to change the policy picture in any meaningful way, unless inflation throws up a genuine surprise, one way or the other.
Turning to EUR/USD, Pablo Piovano, Senior Analyst at FXStreet, shared his technical outlook. “If EUR/USD decisively slips below the short-term 55-day moving average at 1.1639, it would open the door to a deeper pullback, with the 200-day SMA at 1.1561 coming into focus sooner rather than later,” he notes. “Below that, attention would turn to the November low at 1.1468 (November 5), followed by the August trough at 1.1391 (August 1).”
“On the flip side, a clean break above the December peak at 1.1807 (December 24) would shift the tone back to the upside. That would put the 2025 high at 1.1918 (September 17) on the radar, with the psychologically important 1.2000 level lurking just beyond,” Piovano adds.
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
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