Dan Ives says AI buildout only in 3rd inning. Here are his top 5 plays from here
Veteran technology analyst Dan Ives thinks it’s early days for the transformation triggered by artificial intelligence, and that it’s going to broaden out economically rather than grow more concentrated. Ives, partner at Yorkville Ives , initiated coverage on nearly 50 tech companies on Tuesday, describing his stance on the sector as “very bullish” and highlighting his top five equity plays. “Investors are still underestimating the scale and scope of this $4 trillion dollar spending wave over the next few years despite AI safety concerns, regulatory calls from the Beltway, and geopolitical jitters,” Ives and colleagues wrote. “We believe the second/third/fourth derivatives of the AI Revolution are just starting to play out across the tech landscape.” “We believe this is the 3rd inning of a 9-inning game, and the scale of what is now committed is the evidence,” he said. Ives’ top five are Nvidia , Microsoft , Palantir , Apple and CrowdStrike , but his calls extend to some lesser-known names with higher projected upside, as well. CRWD YTD mountain CRWD ytd One of his main themes is that agentic AI – little pieces of software that act as users and carry out tasks for businesses and consumers – will amplify demand for cybersecurity budgets as agents become more capable and increasingly programmed to take initiative. “Agentic AI has expanded the attack surface faster than budgets, and the frontier labs have moved inside the security stack, which we expect to lift security from roughly 5% of IT budgets toward 10% the next 3 years,” Ives said. AI capital equipment builders Ives’ top AI equipment builders are chipmaking behemoth Nvidia and Microsoft , with outperform ratings on both. He’s got a price target of $300 on Nvidia, implying upside of 25% from Tuesday’s close. He also sees Microsoft climbing 16% to $615. For Nvidia’s products, “demand is broadening beyond the largest hyperscalers as sovereign AI programs, neoclouds, enterprises, and model developers build dedicated AI infrastructure,” Ives said. On Microsoft, Ives noted that the company’s backlogs and outstanding contractual obligations are growing while also broadening out in terms of its customer base. “Commercial [remaining performance obligations] reached $678 billion, and the breadth of the backlog was particularly encouraging, as RPO grew 25% excluding OpenAI and all sequential growth came from customers outside the frontier-model companies,” he said. MSFT YTD mountain MSFT ytd. Cybersecurity and software Top picks in cybersecurity and software are Palantir Technologies with a $250 price target and implied upside of 30%, and CrowdStrike — which the analyst assigned a $335 price target signaling a gain of 20%. Frontier AI model companies Anthropic and OpenAI are increasingly positioning themselves as cybersecurity companies, Ives told CNBC on Wednesday, even as they’re perpetrating high-profile security breaches. While that encroachment is threatening traditionally established names in the cybersecurity sector, it’s also boosting demand for their products at the same time. “The frontier labs have essentially created a golden age for cybersecurity companies by doing this,” he said. “Cybersecurity stocks are, I believe, still in the early days of just a massive growth cycle.” Lesser-known names Ives has a price target of $24 on cloud equipment provider Boost Run , suggesting upside for the stock of about 58%. “[Second quarter 2026] results provided the first meaningful evidence that this contracted demand is beginning to convert into reported scale,” he wrote of the company. Ives also sees Serve Robotics surging 67% to $8. He thinks of the commercial transportation company that uses sidewalk robots “as an early leader in autonomous last-mile delivery.”
