The most critical day of the first quarter earnings season is here. Amazon , Alphabet , Meta Platforms and Microsoft are all due to report after the market closes Wednesday. The four represent more than 10% of the S & P 500’s total market capitalization, FactSet data shows. But if the last round of financial results is any indication, the post-earnings performance for these companies may leave much to be desired. Amazon fell more than 5% after reporting fourth quarter earnings, while Microsoft shed nearly 10% after releasing results in late January. Alphabet fell slightly. The one bright spot was Meta, which soared 10%. Three of the four names posted better-than-expected earnings back then, with Amazon’s bottom line coming in just shy of the consensus. Since then, their performances have been mixed. Amazon not only recovered from its early year earnings pullback, it has soared more than 24% since then. Alphabet has also popped more than 8% in that time, while Meta has given back some ground with a 6% decline. Microsoft, meanwhile, remains mired in a funk, falling slightly. For Amazon and Microsoft, this means the bar is set high for their earnings. In other words, a beat may not be enough. For Meta, expectations remain high despite the stock easing since its Q4 results came out, while Microsoft could get a boost if its numbers are solid. Martin Roberge, portfolio strategist at Canaccord Genuity, thinks investors may be pleased with this next set of results, however. He cited two factors: Canaccord compiled data showing “digital ad spend accelerated in Q1.” “Another source of strength should come from data centers, understanding that rent prices for GPUs surged 20% in Q1,” he said. “In short, compute demand looks strong while supply remains constrained, validating the ramp-up in capex. And for now, the market is giving hyperscalers a pass on capex despite companies relying increasingly on debt,” Roberge added. A strong earnings showing from these companies would also validate the stock market’s recent move to all-time highs. But should hyperscalers come under pressure again, any losses could be steep.
