Gold and silver prices climbed on the MCX on Thursday morning, supported by a weaker US dollar amid chatter of currency debasement. MCX gold October futures were 0.28% up at ₹1,60,108 per 10 grams, while MCX silver September contracts were 0.41% up at ₹2,40,625 per kg around 9:45 AM.
Gold prices in the US rose amid lingering fears of currency debasement. Gold futures for December gained by 0.20% to $4,697.45 per troy ounce.
Experts believe that piling US debt and the dollar-debasement narrative are supporting gold. Besides, growing expectations of a pause on rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve in September are also positive for the yellow metal.
Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) rose 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, while headline PCE increased 3.7% year-on-year in July, showing inflation remained above the Fed’s 2% target for the 65th straight month.
According to Reuters, the CME FedWatch Tool shows traders see a 36.5% chance of a US Fed interest rate hike in September and a 72.7% chance by December.
The focus now is on the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the annual Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming on Friday, for further cues on inflation and interest rate trajectory.
“Investors now await Warsh’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, although he is not expected to offer clear guidance on the central bank’s September policy decision,” Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, noted.
“With fiscal concerns, elevated debt and the upcoming Jackson Hole speech keeping markets alert, dips in gold remain an opportunity while the larger trend stays bullish,” said Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services.
Gold and silver prices: Key levels to watch
According to Singh, MCX gold prices may see a corrective move towards ₹1,56,000 before attempting the next leg higher. However, the broader structure remains positive as the metal continues to trade above its key EMAs, keeping the medium-term outlook constructive.
“A sustained recovery after holding ₹1,56,000 would strengthen the case for further upside,” said Singh.
According to Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research, gold has support at $4,610 and $4,574 while resistance is at $4,694 and $4,720 per troy ounce, and silver has support at $67.10 and $66, while resistance is at $68.80 and $70 per troy ounce in today’s session.
MCX gold has support at ₹1,58,800 and ₹1,57,700, and resistance is at ₹1,60,600 and ₹1,61,500, while silver has support at ₹2,37,000 and ₹2,34,400 and resistance is at ₹2,42,000 and ₹2,44,500, said Jain.
Jain suggests traders stay away from precious metals until clarity emerges on the duty-cut rumours, but long-term investors can accumulate gold and silver in a staggered way amid declines.
Trivedi expects MCX gold October futures to appreciate to ₹1,60,500 ahead of the Fed Chair’s speech.
(With inputs from Reuters)
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Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
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