Now that the Nasdaq-100 has slipped into a correction, investors are unsure what’s next: Has the index found a bottom or does the tech sell-off have further to go? If last week was indeed the bottom, then history suggests that it will take just two months for the tech-heavy index to recover what was lost, according to CFRA Research. The Nasdaq-100 has dropped 11.3% between June 2 and July 29, a shallow correction. After it recovers those losses, it should rise 6% from there over the following month — before it finally runs the risk of a pullback of 5% or more, the firm found. In the rare event that the Nasdaq-100 continues to fall, and tip into a bear market — a decline of more than 20% from the high — it could take 43 days for the index to recover its losses, the firm found. At that point, it could take another two months to climb 11% from then on. “Investors understandably feel like a runner at the start of a 100-meter high-hurdles race, contemplating a daunting array of forward obstacles,” wrote Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. Regardless of what happens next, the near-term path is clearly riddled with obstacles for investors, according to the strategist. The bull case continues to hinge on strong earnings. But even as the second quarter earnings season continues to blow away analysts’ expectations, not all has been rosy. .NDX 3M mountain Nasdaq 100, 3-month CFRA found that the nine out of 11 S & P 500 sectors have actually seen downward revisions to their 2027 estimates. The firm also noted that the S & P 500’s growth has been trimmed to 13.6% from 18.0%. There are seasonal challenges as well, given that August is the second-worst month for the S & P 500, with the third highest average volatility of any calendar month, the firm found. On Monday, however, stocks were staging an impressive rebound from last week’s sell-off. The Nasdaq-100 was up 1.8% in afternoon trading, as investors pivoted into megacaps and software and exited from semiconductors.
