Intels earnings beat couldnt offset a weaker-than-expected outlook. Heres what analysts are saying
Analysts across Wall Street were left disappointed after Intel shared softer-than-expected guidance for the March quarter, offsetting a fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat . Intel reported adjusted earnings of 15 cents per share for the fourth quarter, beating LSEG consensus of 8 cents per share. The company’s $13.7 billion revenue also exceeded expectations of $13.4 billion. But its outlook left Wall Street disappointed. For the current quarter, the company expects revenue between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, and for adjusted earnings per share to break even. Both figures are below the LSEG consensus of $12.51 billion in sales and earnings of 5 cents per share. Shares plummeted 13% in Friday’s premarket. INTC 5D mountain INTC 5D chart Analysts blamed Intel’s supply constraints for impacting the top line for the current quarter. “Unconstrained supply would have yielded above seasonal sales as AI driven demand to upgrade CPUs in general purpose servers appears strong,” Citi’s Atif Malik wrote. But some adopted a more constructive view. Jefferies’ Blayne Curtis believes that “March will be the bottom for supply constraints,” while Roth’s Suji Desilva said that the company is already adopting the necessary steps to fix this constraint. “Management indicated that data center revenue would have been significantly better than seasonal if more capacity were available,” Desilva wrote. “We expect INTC to improve product availability by improving manufacturing yield on key nodes in the coming quarter.” Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis also pointed strength in the company’s data center and artificial intelligence business. “INTC’s DCAI segment accelerated sharply (+16% q/q) from prior quarter growth reflecting higher than expected AI data center customer demand,” Roth’s Desilva wrote. Additional catalysts analysts noted include ramps on Intel’s 18A semiconductor manufacturing process, alongside customer orders for its 14A technology that should start rolling in in the second half of 2026, marking positive progress for Intel’s Foundry business. Still, most analysts remain on the sidelines when it comes to Intel. LSEG data shows that 33 of 47 who cover the stock have a hold rating on it. Just eight assigned a buy or strong buy rating, while the remaining six rate it as underperform or sell. Here’s what analysts at some of Wall Street’s biggest firms had to say on the report. Stifel: hold rating, $42 price target Stifel’s target, up from $35, implies about 23% downside from Intel’s Thursday close. We view 2H26-1H27 as a potential catalyst window, in which INTC will host their first Investor Day under LBT, and could denote an infection point for firm long-term 14A volume commitments and advanced packaging ramps. For now, though, shares appear fairly valued to us. Jefferies: hold, $45 Jefferies’ forecast offers downside of 17%. “Guidance well below despite server strength with margin recovery pushing out again. We appreciate the recent excitement around opportunity for INTC but still don’t see a clear path forward given further share loss, no AI strategy and unclear fab/packaging opportunities.” Evercore ISI: in line, $45 Evercore ISI raised its price target from $41.10. “There still remains plenty of wood to chop in INTC’s multi-year transition. We view the risk/reward ratio as balanced, with improving execution and geopolitical tailwinds offset by high valuation and multiyear effort to win foundry customers and close the transistor gap at 14A. AH trading levels are slightly above our Bull-Case SoTP valuation of $45.” Cantor Fitzgerald: neutral, $45 “The good news — 1Q26 should mark the low for 2026. The bad news — Intel will likely be constrained for a Q or two, with likely some share benefit accruing to AMD … Our sense is that actual fundamentals combined with real clarity on foundry customers are the next catalysts, but most likely in 2HCY26.” Citi: neutral, $48 Citi’s target, down from $50, corresponds to downside of around 12%. “Yields on 18A are improving, and the company aims to reach industry standard yields by 2H26 … Intel is actively engaged with customers on 14A. Customers are looking at the test chips now. Intel expects customers to make firm supplier decisions in 2H26/1H27. Intel expects to begin risk production on 14A in late 2028, with high-volume manufacturing from late 2028 to 2029.” Mizuho: neutral, $48 The firm raised its forecast from $41. “Maintaining Neutral, adjust estimates and PT to $48 from $41 as we see Server CPU better but margin headwinds and Foundry customer ramps only longer-term.” RBC Capital Markets: sector perform, $48 “Intel’s 4Q results were better while its 1Q26 outlook was weaker. Management blamed supply constraints and sees above-seasonal growth through the rest of the year as supply improves. Gross margin outlook also fell below our model due to early 18A ramps (suboptimal yields) and mix. Management sounded optimistic about Foundry progress and commentary points to a potential 14A customer announcement in 2H26. However, meaningful revenue contribution appears less likely until late 2028.” Roth: neutral, $50 Roth’s target, raised from $40, calls for 8% downside going forward. “INTC reported strong 4Q25 data center demand but guided for seasonally weaker 1Q26 revenue and gross margin contraction impacted by manufacturing constraint limitations. We expect CY26 growth support from strong AI data center demand for the company’s x86 CPUs and look for newer client processors and foundry/ packaging customer traction to drive intermediate-term growth.” KeyBanc Capital Markets: overweight, $65 Analyst John Vinh’s forecast, up from $60, is 20% above Intel’s Thursday closing price. “INTC posted strong 4Q25 results and guided 1Q26 below. Upside was driven by strong server CPU demand, as DCAI grew +15% q/q, while 1Q rev/GM were guided lower due to peak constraints, as lower revs and the initial 18A ramp are dilutive to GMs. However, capacity is expected to increase with above seasonal growth expected the rest of the year. INTC did not confirm AAPL as an IFS win but indicated customers are expected to make foundry decisions on 14A in 2H26. Despite mixed results, we remain OW and increase our PT to $65 given expectations regarding AAPL as an 18A customer & potential 14A win.”
