Midterm elections: How affordability and the economy could impact voters

As rising concerns about the cost of everyday goods, including gas and groceries, weigh on household finances, the election is shaping up to be a key test of economic sentiment.

Issues like inflation, home prices, mortgages and childcare impact households differently, but most Americans have a pessimistic economic outlook, according to CNBC’s latest All-America Economic Survey, which polled 1,000 registered voters nationwide in mid-October.

“Affordability is the central issue in the forthcoming midterm elections,” said William Galston, a senior fellow and chair of governance studies at the Brookings Institution, a think tank. “Nothing else is close.”

With less than a week until the Nov. 3 midterm elections, several key pocketbook issues could impact voters’ decisions at the ballot box, according to policy experts.

Improving housing affordability has become bipartisan. Two-thirds of U.S. adults — 66% — say they’re very concerned about housing costs, according to a recent survey from the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan research group. That includes 76% of Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents and 53% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.

High home prices and borrowing costs have put homeownership out of reach for some prospective buyers. The median price of an existing home was $417,500 in September, according to the National Association of Realtors, a real estate trade group. While up just 1.3% from a year earlier, the amount is nearly 54% higher than in September 2019, according to NAR.

Meanwhile, many renters continue to devote a substantial share of their income to housing. In 2024, 22.7 million renter households — 49% of the total — spent more than 30% of their income on rent and utilities, according to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. That included 12.1 million households spending more than half of their income on housing.

Congress passed the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act this year, which became law without President Donald Trump’s signature after he declined to sign or veto it. The legislation includes measures aimed at encouraging housing construction, reducing regulatory barriers, expanding financing options and limiting purchases of single-family homes by large institutional investors.

“The short-run effects will be modest at best,” Edward Golding, a former head of the Federal Housing Administration, wrote in an analysis published in September by MIT’s Golub Center for Finance and Policy. “But in the longer term, the act may accelerate the change occurring at the state and local levels to make it easier and less costly to build new houses, especially smaller houses for first-time homebuyers.”

— Sarah Agostino

Early White House projections said tax refunds would be $1,000 higher or more on average in 2026, but the increase was smaller for many filers. As of May 8, the average tax refund for individual returns was $3,276, up from $2,939 in 2025, according to the latest IRS data.

But Trump’s tax cuts “hit households differently,” depending on each family’s unique situation, said Joseph Rosenberg, a senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

It’s also difficult to tell whether a bigger refund earlier this year will impact voters in November, experts say.

“There are so many non-tax items going on,” said Garrett Watson, vice president of federal tax policy with the Tax Foundation. With a focus on affordability, the Iran war, oil prices and artificial intelligence, “tax may take more of a backseat in the midterms,” he said.

While most Americans care about taxes, fewer than 10% say it’s the single most important election issue, according to a Politico poll that surveyed about 2,000 U.S. adults in mid-October.

— Kate Dore

Anyone with rising health insurance premiums is focused on where candidates stand on affordability.

“Many voters are worried about their ability to afford healthcare,” said Larry Levitt, KFF’s executive vice president for health policy. “And many Republican candidates are on the defensive about their votes to cut Medicaid and allow extra ACA premium subsidies to expire.”

Republicans did not extend those enhanced premium tax credits, which, before they expired at the end of 2025, made Affordable Care Act marketplace health insurance more affordable for millions of Americans. The OBBBA also established work requirements and more frequent eligibility checks for certain adults on Medicaid, said Erica Eliason, an assistant professor at Rutgers School of Public Health.

Senators elected to a six-year term in November will be in office when a key Social Security funding deadline hits. In 2032, Social Security’s retirement trust fund may be depleted, according to an annual report from the program’s trustees released in June. At that time, 78% of those benefits will be payable, unless Congress acts sooner.

The incoming crop of Senate and House leaders will be tasked with deciding whether to raise taxes, cut benefits or a combination of both to address the program’s solvency woes. Recent surveys from the Peter G. Peterson Foundation and the AARP have found voters are more likely to support candidates who will protect Social Security.

On the campaign trail, some Democratic candidates have said they are in favor of raising or eliminating the payroll tax cap to increase the money coming into the program. In 2026, up to $184,500 in earnings are subject to Social Security payroll taxes.

Meanwhile, some Republicans running for re-election have supported OBBBA, which provided an additional deduction of up to $6,000 per individual for seniors to reduce taxes paid on Social Security benefit income. The temporary senior deduction is scheduled to expire in 2028unless lawmakers act.

“Social Security insolvency is going to force some unpopular decisions in the next six years, and I would expect at that point some of these taxes may rise,” said Jessica Riedl, a fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center.

— Lorie Konish

Interest rates aren’t on the ballot. The Federal Reserve sets monetary policy independently. However, borrowing costs remain a top concern for voters, and the policies enacted by the next Congress could affect inflation, an important factor in the Fed’s decisions on interest rates.

One key question is whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates again, and by how much. Generally, the Fed hikes short-term rates to tame inflation, but higher borrowing costs can also strain household budgets — adding to the affordability crunch many already face.

Unexpectedly hot producer and consumer inflation reports, driven largely by higher energy costs stemming from the Iran war, could force the Fed’s hand, experts say.

“This means that inflation is broadening out, something that is not a good omen for the Fed and would raise the probability for an increase in rates,” said Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James.

The Fed raised rates to a range of 3.75% to 4% last month, its first hike since 2023, and Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 10% chance the central bank will hike rates by one-quarter of a percentage point when it meets this week — just days before the elections on Nov. 3, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

In previous election cycles, the Fed has mostly maintained its charted course, research shows. The four times the Fed increased rates near a midterm — 1978, 1982, 2018 and 2022 — were all tied to rising inflation, according to Mark Shore, director and economist at CME Group.

After the midterm election, inflation is likely to remain above the Fed’s 2% target, according to an Oct. 15 note by Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

“Continued Republican control might present the greatest upside inflation risk if additional tax cuts, tariffs, or tighter immigration policies were to stimulate demand or constrain labor supply,” the note said. “But faster energy permitting and greater domestic energy production might offset some cost pressures in this scenario.”

Alternatively, the midterm elections may lead to a divided government, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s, “which reduces the odds of more deficit-financed fiscal policy and should help ease inflationary pressures and the need for more rate hikes,” he said. “But this is on the margin.”

— Jessica Dickler

Student loans are an affordability issue for many consumers: Roughly 9.3 million federal student loan borrowers were in default as of late June, according to government data. Others face sharply higher payments under changing repayment options as they head to the polls.

The U.S. Department of Education has given several million borrowers a limited window to exit the Biden administration-era Saving on a Valuable Education, or SAVE, plan. That program offered the lowest payments among income-driven repayment plans.

Recently, Trump officials also recalculated some borrowers’ timelines to debt cancellation under the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, keeping them in debt longer.

If Democrats win control of one or both chambers, they are likely to focus on restoring SAVE and lost payments for PSLF borrowers, and push to raise the new federal borrowing caps, said higher education expert Mark Kantrowitz. The caps, which took effect in July, limit graduate students to $20,500 a year and professional students to $50,000 a year. Those borrowing restrictions are expected to make it more challenging for low- and middle-income students to pursue higher education.

Meanwhile, a victory for Republicans would mean they have the next two years — the term of the next Congress — to continue implementing OBBBA changes. Those include scrapping several existing repayment options and doing away with payment pauses for struggling student loan borrowers.

— Annie Nova

Increasing health insurance premiums, copays and direct payments to healthcare providers are putting pressure on those providing care for a family member or other loved one, experts say. A new study from Edward Jones found that Americans caring for aging family members spend an average of $8,737 per year out of pocket and that their personal retirement savings and careers bear the brunt.

AARP’s recent polling in several swing states, including Ohio, Georgia and Texas, found that at least half of voters age 50 and older say they are or have been a family caregiver. Nearly three-quarters of respondents say they would be more likely to support a candidate who backs policies that help unpaid caregivers keep loved ones living independently at home.

— Sharon Epperson and Stephanie Dhue