NZD/USD trades lower near the 0.5900 level at the time of writing, with no New Zealand catalyst behind the move. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is up 0.26% near the 100.00 level, and the Kiwi is simply on the wrong side of it.
Oil is up 3% at $77.30 per barrel after reports that vessels linked to the United States (US), Israel, and other countries Tehran considers hostile would be barred from the Strait of Hormuz under the proposed agreement. But Gold is down 0.09%, and Silver is off 0.84% on the same news.
China is the more direct problem, and it reports overnight. Exports are expected to have grown 22.2% in the year to July, down from 27%, with imports slowing to 27.9% from 36% and the trade surplus narrowing to $107 billion from $125.62 billion. Those are still strong figures, but a slowdown in New Zealand’s largest export market matters more to the Kiwi than anything on the domestic calendar this week.
US Nonfarm Payrolls follow on Friday, with the consensus at 80K after June’s 57K and average hourly earnings seen up 0.3% on the month. A firm wage print would extend the Greenback’s recovery and leave the kiwi squeezed from both directions.
Short-term technical analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD trades at 0.5869, with the near-term tone capped as the pair sits under the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.5876 while holding above the 100-period SMA at 0.5835. The horizontal band of levels just overhead between 0.5872 and 0.5882 reinforces this immediate supply zone, keeping upside attempts in check, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 51 suggests neutral-to-firm momentum that is yet to translate into a clear bullish breakout.
On the topside, initial resistance is clustered at 0.5872 and 0.5876, followed by 0.5882, with more substantial barriers seen at 0.5907 and 0.5930 before 0.5965. On the downside, immediate support is located at 0.5860, ahead of the 100-period SMA at 0.5835, which acts as a deeper structural floor for any corrective slide.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
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