The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Thursday, tracking mixed global market cues, amid concerns over the prolonged US-Iran war and its impact on energy prices and inflation.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a negative start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,882 level, a discount of nearly 106 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Wednesday, the Indian stock market ended lower, with the benchmark Nifty 50 slipping below 24,000 level.
The Sensex cracked 715.06 points, or 0.92%, to close at 76,755.05, while the Nifty 50 settled 191.45 points, or 0.79%, lower at 23,996.25.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex has formed a long bearish candle on daily charts, which also indicates further weakness from the current levels.
“Technically, Sensex has slipped below the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 77,000 support zone, and post-breakdown, selling pressure intensified. We are of the view that, as long as Sensex is trading below 77,000, weak sentiment is likely to continue on the downside. The correction wave is likely to persist till the 50-day SMA or 76,000. Further downside may also continue, which could drag the index to 75,700 – 75,500,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
On the flip side, he believes above 77,000, the sentiment could change, and above this level, Sensex could bounce back to 77,300 – 77,500.
“The intraday market texture is uncertain and volatile; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders,” Chouhan added.
Nifty Options Data
On the Nifty options front, maximum Call Open Interest (OI) is at 24,000 then 24,200 strike, while maximum Put OI is at 23,500 then 24,200 strike. Call writing is seen at 24,000 then 24,100 strike, while Put writing is seen at 24,000 then 23,950 strike.
“Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 23,500 to 24,500 zones, while an immediate range between 23,700 to 24,200 levels,” said Chandan Taparia Head Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a strong bearish candle on the daily timeframe, indicating sustained selling pressure and suggesting that the recent consolidation phase has likely broken on the downside.
“A long bear candle was formed on the daily chart, that indicates breakdown of short-term range movement in the market. The short-term trend of Nifty 50 seems to have reversed down. Further weakness from here could drag the index down to the next crucial support of around 23,800 – 23,650 levels (significant opening upside gap of 15th June),” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, around the lower supports, one may expect another sizable bounce in the Nifty 50 index. Immediate resistance is placed around 24,150.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market by PhonePe noted that the technical support for Nifty 50 lies at 23,800 – 23,900 levels.
“According to your technical chart parameters, this zone serves as the primary structural demand floor. With the Nifty 50 index closing just below 24,000, the 23,800 – 23,900 range will act as the crucial cushion to prevent further downside momentum,” said Jain.
On the upside, he believes the 24,500 – 24,600 band represents the primary overhead resistance zone for the Nifty 50 index.
“On an immediate trailing basis, buyers first need to reclaim the 24,200 level to neutralize near-term selling pressure before challenging the major 24,500 – 24,600 supply block,” added Jain.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 708.55 points, or 1.23%, lower at 57,126.80 on Wednesday, forming a sizeable bearish candle and closing below its 20-day EMA for the first time since July 8.
“The falling MACD line, coupled with rising red histogram bars, points to increasing downside momentum. Going ahead, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 56,700 – 56,600 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness until 56,300, followed by 56,000 in the short term,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
On the upside, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,500 – 57,600 zone, he added.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that the daily Bollinger Bands continue to be narrow, a setup that typically precedes a sharp expansion in volatility.
“The RSI is placed at 48, slipping below the 50 mark for the first time in nearly two weeks. The MACD histogram remains skewed to the downside. The immediate resistance is placed at 57,800. On the downside, 56,570 acts as the first support level, while 56,000 may provide a stronger cushion if the first support level is breached,” said Mehra.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
About The Author
