Global markets today: Following no meaningful progress in the US-Iran peace talks, the global markets’ bias has turned weak. The key benchmark indices of the US stock market ended lower on Monday, while Asian markets are trading lower in early-morning deals on Tuesday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index crashed by over 2%, while the South Korean KOSPI index is down by around 1.50%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is also down by over 0.50%. In India, the Gift Nifty live index is also down by over 85 points from its previous close, but it is still around yesterday’s spot Nifty close. This signals the Indian stock market may have a flat-to-negative start during the Opening Bell.
“Indian equity markets are expected to trade with a cautious bias as renewed strength in crude oil prices and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to weigh on investor sentiment. With no meaningful progress in resolving the US–Iran conflict and US President Donald Trump ruling out an extension of the 60-day temporary ceasefire arrangement, concerns over energy supplies remain firmly in focus,” said Ponmudi R, CEO at Enrich Money.
The Enrich Money expert said WTI crude is trading around $ 84 per barrel, keeping inflationary pressures and energy-related risks at the forefront for oil-importing economies such as India.
Middle East crisis persists
On the geopolitical front, uncertainty remains elevated after President Trump also threatened Oman, a key mediator in the Strait of Hormuz negotiations with Iran, raising fresh questions over the prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough. With the strategic shipping route remaining at the centre of the conflict, investors are likely to stay cautious until there is greater clarity on the geopolitical front.
US Fed minutes in focus
The minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July policy meeting, due on Wednesday, will be a key focus for global markets. Investors will look for greater clarity on the extent of the policy divide within the FOMC and any signals on the Fed’s September policy outlook, with implications for U.S. Treasury yields, the dollar, and capital flows into emerging markets.
The releases come against a backdrop of elevated 10-year Treasury yields near 4.70% and crude oil prices holding around $82 a barrel.
Global markets’ equity heatmap
Here we list out the equity heatmap of the global markets today:
US stock market: Soaring oil prices offset AI optimism
US equities ended lower on Monday as renewed enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence was offset by rising oil prices and broader macroeconomic concerns. The S&P 500 fell 0.52%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.51%, while the Nasdaq 100 outperformed but still slipped 0.32%.
AI hyperscalers and infrastructure-related stocks advanced after Anthropic reported $11.5 billion in second-quarter revenue and confirmed it is in discussions with banks regarding a potential initial public offering that could become one of the largest on record, reinforcing expectations that AI-related capital spending will remain robust. Memory-chip makers Sandisk and Micron gained 8.8% and 4%, respectively, while Nvidia and Amazon also posted modest advances. Traditional sectors, however, lagged, with investors remaining cautious ahead of earnings from Walmart and Home Depot later this week.
“Oil prices remained a dominant macro theme. WTI crude surged more than 3% on Monday to around $85 per barrel after President Donald Trump ruled out extending the expiring agreement with Iran, further dimming prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough. Prices eased modestly in early Tuesday trading to around $84 per barrel, while US Treasury prices fell, pushing yields higher as investors reassessed inflation risk,” Ponmudi of Enrich Money said.
Asian markets today
Asian markets are trading with a weak bias on Tuesday. The Japanese Nikkei 225 index crashed over 2%, the South Korean KOSPI index is down by 1.42%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down by 0.71%, and the Taiwan Weighted index nosedived 0.82%.
The Chinese indices are also trading under pressure during Tuesday’s dealings. The Shanghai index is down by 0.40%, the DJ Shanghai index is off by 0.65%, whereas the China A50 index is down by 0.85%.
What does it mean for the Indian stock market?
Expecting a cautious trade during the Opening Bell on Dalal Street, Ponmudi R of Enrich Money said, “GIFT Nifty futures are trading near the 24,300 mark, pointing to a largely flat opening for domestic equities compared with the Nifty’s previous close of 24,287.”
Nifty 50 to Sensex today: Outlook for key Indian indices
Speaking on the outlook for the Nifty 50 / Sensex today, Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research at Kotak Securities, said, “For day traders now, 24,400/78000 would act as an immediate resistance zone for the bulls. If the market succeeds in trading above this level, it could bounce back to 24,500-24,620/80200-80500. On the flip side, a break below 24,200/77500 could accelerate selling pressure. Below this, the market could retest the levels of 24,100-24,000/77200-76900.”
On the outlook of the Bank Nifty today, Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said, “Bank Nifty formed a small-bodied candlestick on the daily chart, reflecting consolidation and indecision among market participants. The index is also trading within a narrow range, with the descending trendline adding resistance near 58,000. RSI remains close to the 50 mark, indicating neutral momentum and the absence of a clear directional bias. Hence, Bank Nifty is likely to remain range-bound between 57,000 and 58,000 in the near term. A decisive breakout above 58,000 or breakdown below 57,000 could trigger the next directional move.”
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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