The Indian rupee opened 2 paise lower at 94.68 against the US dollar on Wednesday, 1 July, tracking weakness in Asian currencies as higher US Treasury yields weighed on investor sentiment and curbed risk appetite.
The local currency has remained under pressure over the past two sessions, hurt by declines in regional peers, increased importer hedging activity and fading speculative interest.
For the past two-and-a-half weeks, the rupee has largely traded within the 94.10–94.90 range. Traders told Reuters that the downside has been limited by likely intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), with the central bank reportedly selling dollars whenever the currency approaches the 95-per-dollar level, making it a key support threshold for the rupee.
Strong Dollar continues to weigh on the Rupee
Experts believe the rupee also faces pressure from a resilient US dollar. The US Dollar Index has remained above the 101 level after the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance on interest rates.
Recent US economic data has further strengthened the greenback. Job openings rose to 7.594 million in May, exceeding market expectations, while the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged up to 91.20 in June. A firm US economy reduces expectations of near-term rate cuts, supporting the dollar and limiting gains for emerging market currencies, including the rupee.
India-US Trade deal offers a positive trigger
On the positive side, experts say progress on the proposed India-US trade agreement could improve sentiment toward the rupee.
US Ambassador Sergio Gor recently indicated that negotiations are nearly complete, with only the final 1% of discussions remaining ahead of the expiry of the temporary 10% US tariff arrangement on 24 July. According to experts, a successful agreement could strengthen investor confidence, support India’s export outlook and encourage sustained foreign capital inflows, providing a supportive backdrop for the domestic currency.
Rupee Outlook
Amit Pabari, MD, CR Forex Advisors said that technically, 94.00–94.30 remains a strong support zone for USDINR. The pair has tested this region several times but has failed to break lower, pointing towards continued dollar demand and possible RBI buying.
As long as this support holds, the probability of USDINR moving towards 95.30–95.50 remains strong in the coming sessions.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
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