Salesforce is set to rebound after a recent pullback. How trader Tony Zhang is playing the bounce
Salesforce just posted one of the best quarters, revenue and profit both grew at their fastest pace in years. The company’s new AI agents are scaling even faster than that. The stock gapped higher on that news, then kept climbing into the company’s biggest investor event of the year. However, a global outage hit at the worse time as management was on stage pitching their AI story during the annual Dreamforce conference. Additionally, OpenAI’s new AI model reignited fears that software companies could get disrupted out of existence. As a result, CRM pulled back and opened a gap between price and the underlying fundamentals, providing an opportunity for a defined-risk bullish trade setup. Timing & Outlook Salesforce trades near $230 after pulling back from a 52-week high. The stock still carries a relative strength score of 9 out of 10 versus the S & P 500, even though it has underperformed the index over the past three weeks while it digests its post-Dreamforce pullback. Software remains a leader versus the S & P 500 on a weekly basis in our sector rotation model. Guggenheim reiterated its $300 price target, just two days after the stock closed lower on outage and AI-disruption headlines, one of six firms that raised or reaffirmed bullish targets around this month’s Dreamforce event. Fundamentals Salesforce trades at a discount to the broader software industry despite net margins far above its industry, a gap that presents a compelling opportunity the longer the AI business keeps compounding at triple-digit growth rates. Salesforce trades at just shy of 14x forward earnings, a sign the market hasn’t fully repriced Salesforce’s AI monetization into forward numbers yet. With 11% revenue and EPS grow with double the net margin profile, is a gap that tends to close once Wall Street’s estimates catch up. Bullish thesis Agentforce is scaling faster than price reflects. Agentforce annual recurring revenue topped $1.5 billion in the second quarter, up more than 240% year over year, helping push full-year revenue guidance up to a range of $46.1 billion to $46.4 billion. The pullback decouples from fundamentals. Shares fell after a global outage struck during Dreamforce and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra release revived AI-disruption fears, yet Guggenheim reiterated its $300 target just two days later on September 20. Wall Street sets a $300 price target. Canaccord upgraded the stock and Guggenheim and Stifel both raised their targets to $300 after Dreamforce, with Stifel citing management’s reaffirmed $63 billion fiscal 2030 revenue target built on six distinct AI monetization paths. Options trade Given the pullback within a longer-term uptrend, software’s leadership versus the S & P 500, and Wall Street’s fresh $300 price targets after Dreamforce, we’re looking at a bull put spread to bet on continued strength above $230 with limited risk. The trade: Sell the Oct. 30, 2026 230/215 Put Vertical @ $5.52 Credit The individual legs: Buy to Open the Oct. 30, 2026 $215 Put Sell to Open the Oct. 30, 2026 $230 Put Max reward: $552 if Salesforce is above $230 at expiration. Max risk: $948 if Salesforce is below $215 at expiration. Breakeven: $224.48, the level above which the trade starts showing a profit at expiration. View this Trade on OptionsPlay for Updated Pricing Summary Salesforce delivered one of its strongest quarters ever in August, then followed it with a Dreamforce event that pulled six analysts toward a $300 price target. None of that stopped the stock from selling off on a global outage and a fresh round of AI-disruption fears. However, the Agentforce AI business grew more than 240% last year year and hasn’t slowed down. The October 230/215 put spread offers a defined way to bet the pullback provides a unique buying opportunity using limited risk with options. DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY . THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MIGHT NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for the full disclaimer.
