Stock market news: The benchmark indices of the Indian stock market, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to begin trading higher and show some volatility on Sunday in anticipation of the Budget 2026 announcement.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is scheduled to present the Union Budget for 2026-2027 in the Lok Sabha today.
GIFT Nifty futures concluded at 25,443 on Friday, suggesting that the Nifty 50 will likely start above its last recorded close of 25,320.65.
The Indian stock market is open today, February 1, for a special trading session due to the presentation of the Union Budget.
On Friday, the Indian stock market closed down as investors took profits, interrupting a three-day streak of gains.
The Sensex fell by 296.59 points, or 0.36%, ending at 82,269.78, while the Nifty 50 decreased by 98.25 points, or 0.39%, to finish at 25,320.65.
Market Outlook by Dharmesh Shah, Vice President, ICICI Securities
Equity benchmark settled the volatile week on a positive note at 25,320, up 1%; as India-EU trade deal provided cushion to the market. Mid and small cap index recovered lost ground and settled 2% & 3% higher, respectively. Sectorally, Defense, PSU and Oil & Gas remained at forefront ahead of Union Budget while consumption remained lackluster.
Technical Outlook:
• The weekly price action formed a Inside bar candle following three-consecutive weeks of lower low formation, indicating a pause in the prevailing downtrend as supportive efforts emerged in the vicinity of 52 weeks EMA (24,900).
• In the upcoming eventful week, all eyes now turn to the Union Budget and RBI Policy outcome; both expected to steer sentiment and keep volatility elevated wherein strong support for the Nifty 50 is placed in the 24,700-24,300 zone. Amidst bouts of volatility, sustainability above last week’s high of 25,400 post Union Budget outcome would lead to extension of pullback rally towards psychological mark of 26,000 marks in coming weeks.
• Within a structural bull market, secondary correction is a common phenomenon. With current 5.5% correction from All Time High (26,373), we believe the index has absorbed the pessimism around the geopolitical concerns, depreciating rupee, persistent FII’s sell-off, India-US tariff concerns. Consequently, index has approached the key event of Union budget on a lighter note wherein Midcap and small cap are poised at key support zone.
Hence, positive trigger from budget outcome would fuel the pullback rally in the market
• Since Covid lows, on four occasions, intermediate corrections got arrested in the vicinity of 20 months EMA. The current reading of 20 months EMA is placed around 24,300 that corroborates with August swing low of 24,338, highlighting strong support going ahead
• The Sentiment & Momentum indicators are poised at bearish extreme, indicating impending pullback. The percentage of stocks above 50 days SMA (within Nifty 500 Universe) has bounced from bearish extreme level of 15% to the current reading of 29%.
Meanwhile, % of stocks above 200 days EMA have bounced from 28%. Historically, Bearish extreme reading of 15% has resulted into durable bottom. Meanwhile, weekly stochastic oscillator is placed in oversold territory, indicating limited downside.
• Sectors in focus: BFSI, Defense, PSU, Capital Good & Infra
Key Monitorable:
a) Union Budget outcome
d) US Dollar Index: Past two week’s sharp decline has hauled it at two years low. Breakdown below 96 would result into extended correction
e) Brent Crude is heading towards 9 months resistance trend line placed at 72. Only a decisive close above 72 would result into extended rally
Stocks To Buy This Week – Dharmesh Shah
Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities recommends buying Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T).
Buy Larsen & Toubro in the range of ₹3,850-3,940. He said L&T share price target of ₹4,520 with a stop loss of ₹3,718.
Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 30/01/2026 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest.
The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.
About The Author
